Ducks Attack Message Board Forum

Inspired by pistol's article, I wanted to get some more advanced stats on the league. I decided to find each team's gaussian win percentage. Basically, it just finds an expected winning percentage based on the mean and variance of your points for and points against. More info can be found here: http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/helpscrn/corrgauss.html. I used points and points against instead of offensive and defensive ratings. Either way, you will get the same value as each team gets the same amount of possessions a game.



Negative differences mean you are underperforming and positive means overperforming.

Strength of schedule is not accounted for here, so I wouldn't take this as gospel but its interesting nonetheless.

Seems Kings are a team to look at for, if they regress to the mean. Love to see that I am overperforming so far

So....we suck, but are expected to suck more!!

I enjoy that I'm like 15-20% worse than the next worst team

Me and the Raps having the highest difference makes sense because of the Quinnett trade not too long ago, I think. #DirkVCTruthtoLAC

Not sure how meaningful this is. Teams don't get the same amount of possessions as eachother, that's why the stat exists!

The Bean Regime wrote:Not sure how meaningful this is. Teams don't get the same amount of possessions as eachother, that's why the stat exists!

in a single game they will though. so offensive and defensive ratings will tell the same story on who won a game as points for and points against. offensive and defensive ratings exist to adjust for the pace of a team

heres the table sorted by expected win percentage

Oh man I hope I finish 4th last like that last table suggests LOL.

This is also data mostly from before the Ben Wallace trade, and we have suffered from some tough injuries to our weakest positions. So I'm cautiously optimistic we should improve to a bit better than .500

Kidd and Spree deserve better. But we're trying

JB wrote:This is also data mostly from before the Ben Wallace trade, and we have suffered from some tough injuries to our weakest positions. So I'm cautiously optimistic we should improve to a bit better than .500

Kidd and Spree deserve better. But we're trying

I think you might want to try changing something up in your DC because Ben ran into a lot of foul trouble yesterday in your first sim with him. Try never trapping.

pistolpetejr wrote:

JB wrote:This is also data mostly from before the Ben Wallace trade, and we have suffered from some tough injuries to our weakest positions. So I'm cautiously optimistic we should improve to a bit better than .500

Kidd and Spree deserve better. But we're trying

I think you might want to try changing something up in your DC because Ben ran into a lot of foul trouble yesterday in your first sim with him. Try never trapping.

I moved him from C to PF, yeah

whenever i can get this applied

Chris Webber
Offensive Rebounding
Defensive Rebounding
Jumping

now that webber is gone...
Brian Quinnett
3 Point Shot
Perimeter Defense
Strength
Drive Defense

duckyoubeavers wrote:Brian Quinnett
3 Point Shot

Done

Oregon Ownage wrote:

duckyoubeavers wrote:Brian Quinnett
3 Point Shot

Done

His 3PT shot was within range to boost LOL??

pistolpetejr wrote:

Oregon Ownage wrote:

duckyoubeavers wrote:Brian Quinnett
3 Point Shot

Done

His 3PT shot was within range to boost LOL??

lol i was not expecting that to be under 85 but hes only 37% 3P% for his career