Hypothetical Playoff Chance For Oregon?

[UofDuck]

I get that beating a one loss USC helps us have a better chance of the playoff, but an argument could be made by having them look weak by more losses and no pac 12 championship participation - would hurt their image and mojo and could be more important over the long haul for Oregon. If SC keeps getting the media love as the reestablished as king of the west, we’ll go back to getting leftovers in Cali. If they fall flat on their face, Oregon and Utah continue to fill that void. I vote for SC to maintain mediocracy at the expense of our SOS. I also think them leaving for the Big while we are King of the West is a statement to the country and talking heads. The Big gets less pub. Not too different from the SEC getting sub-par OK and TX. There has been almost no talk of the SEC getting better with them joining up. Just more eyeballs.

[bigsugarduck]

I'm back to enjoying Duck football again...

SEC has 2 slots.

2 slots for rest (Clemson, TCU, BIG10, Pac12)

Big12 confidently gets 1 in. If Clemson and TCU both win out, I see no way Oregon makes it in.

Therefore, Ducks need a Clemson and TCU loss to get In....maaaaaaybe

[greenyellow]

Ducks are #8 in the first CFP poll. Top four are going to be Tennessee, Ohio State, Georgia and Clemson.

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[StevensTechU]

Those LSU and Ole Miss rankings make you want to just quit this whole thing.

[OregonFan4Life]

Remember when they said the playoff committee wouldn’t be biased? What a joke.

[dthomas=ddixon]

Those LSU and Ole Miss rankings make you want to just quit this whole thing.

Seriously, it’s gross… Keeps that SEC ecosystem at full strength. Those two being so high guarantees 2 getting in even if the wildest scenarios play out.


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[greenyellow]

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[UofDuck]

The only way in would be a few blowouts between teams playing each other above us. If Mich and tOSU play a close game, they will both stay above us. Same with the SEC schools. If there are some blowouts, we could leapfrog

[gogreen55]

The only way in would be a few blowouts between teams playing each other above us. If Mich and tOSU play a close game, they will both stay above us. Same with the SEC schools. If there are some blowouts, we could leapfrog

If Michigan loses to tOSU, even in a close game, I think there is a good chance the Ducks would jump over them that same week....with a couple caveats:

1. The Ducks continue to win, of course.
2. Georgia continues to win.

Recency bias would be on Oregon's side. The desire of the committee to not appear completely biased against teams west of the Mississippi would be on Oregon's side. The Ducks would have wins over Washington, Utah and Oregon State added to their resume by then.

If the Ducks don't jump over them that same week, they almost certainly would if they win the Pac-12 Championship game. The committee isn't going to put a one loss Michigan team, that didn't even make it to their conference championship game, over a one loss Oregon team, that won their conference championship and only lost to the #1 team in the country in Week 1.

There are other roadblocks for the Ducks, but a 1 loss Michigan isn't one of them.

[pezsez1]

I don't think we'll get in even if we win out -- which we will.

I don't think these Ducks will let that slow them down, though. They're too good, too well coached. They'll just make a big statement in the Rose Bowl.

[SuperDuck]

The only way in would be a few blowouts between teams playing each other above us. If Mich and tOSU play a close game, they will both stay above us. Same with the SEC schools. If there are some blowouts, we could leapfrog

If Michigan loses to tOSU, even in a close game, I think there is a good chance the Ducks would jump over them that same week....with a couple caveats:

1. The Ducks continue to win, of course.
2. Georgia continues to win.

Recency bias would be on Oregon's side. The desire of the committee to not appear completely biased against teams west of the Mississippi would be on Oregon's side. The Ducks would have wins over Washington, Utah and Oregon State added to their resume by then.

If the Ducks don't jump over them that same week, they almost certainly would if they win the Pac-12 Championship game. The committee isn't going to put a one loss Michigan team, that didn't even make it to their conference championship game, over a one loss Oregon team, that won their conference championship and only lost to the #1 team in the country in Week 1.

There are other roadblocks for the Ducks, but a 1 loss Michigan isn't one of them.

Georgia MUST beat Tennessee for Oregon to have any chance. If Georgia remains unbeaten they'll likely move to #1, but if they lose they'll never be ranked lower than Oregon. We'd have zero chance of jumping them.

[bellsduck]

Chances are slim.
We could pass Alabama
We could pass Michigan
We could pass TCU
We could pass Clemson.
The other 3 would have to lose twice each and that's not likely.

[dthomas=ddixon]

I’m coming around more and more to the idea that until the final week, the committees main function is to generate interest in matchups. Their explanations team to team and week to week make no sense and totally contradict each other.


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[duckfan96]

Sorry for a dumb question. If/when Ducks win out and win the pac-12 title game, but don’t make the playoffs what bowl will they be in?

[greenyellow]

Sorry for a dumb question. If/when Ducks win out and win the pac-12 title game, but don’t make the playoffs what bowl will they be in?

The Rose Bowl against either Michigan or Ohio State.