Ducks Attack Message Board Forum

This makes my head swim a little. I was curious how it works, particularly if there ends up being a 3 way tie at the top. This article explains it.

Basically, if Oregon loses to Utah they're at a disadvantage. Utah would only have one conference loss and they play Stanford today and Colorado in 2 weeks, so you can pretty much say that they win against us and they're in.

We could go from being on the verge of the playoffs to losing one game and also dropping out of the Rose Bowl race, though I think we'd be a potential candidate for the Fiesta Bowl if that happened. That's assuming we beat UW and OSU, of course.

https://www.oregonlive.com/collegefootb ... ction.html

I'm pretty sure that Oregon, Utah, USC & UCLA all control their own destiny.

If USC wins out, they'd play the winner of Oregon vs Utah.

If UCLA wins out, they'd play the winner of Oregon vs Utah.

If Utah wins out, they'd have head to head wins over Oregon and USC, but a loss vs UCLA.

If Oregon wins out, I'm honestly not sure. I think they'd play UCLA (if they beat USC) or Utah (if USC beats UCLA due to Utah's win over USC).

Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. That's just off the top of my head.

SuperDuck wrote:If Oregon wins out, I'm honestly not sure. I think they'd play UCLA (if they beat USC) or Utah (if USC beats UCLA due to Utah's win over USC).

This sentence by itself doesn't make sense. If Oregon wins out, that would include a win over Utah, giving them a second conference loss. If Oregon wins out and either USC and UCLA wins out, there are no tiebreakers needed.

The 3-team tie breaker scenario gets confusing.

If USC beats UCLA and Utah beats Oregon, then I think the CCG is USC versus Oregon. This is because Utah has the lowest win percentage against common opponents due to the UCLA loss. (See 3-way tie breaker rule 2.)

If UCLA beats USC and Utah beats Oregon, then it goes to strength of schedule and I honestly don't know. UCLA would probably have an edge due to wins against Utah and USC. I'm not sure if Oregon's strength of schedule would be stronger than Utah's. I assume so because the former North division teams are doing better than the former South division teams. But I'm not sure. The rules here are weird.

So, win out!!

Here is a link to an article that lays out the tiebreaker process for the following scenario.

1. Utah wins out, which includes a victory over Oregon.
2. Oregon loses to Utah, but wins the rest of their games.
3. Either USC or UCLA wins the remainder of their conference games.

https://www.ksl.com/article/50509612/wh ... nship-game

Basically, Utah would very likely be one of the participants in the championship game if the above scenario plays out (regardless of who wins the USC/UCLA game). The Ducks chances of being the team that would face Utah in the championship game improves if Arizona State continues to lose, since it could come down to the "combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents" tiebreaker method. The one opponent that both USC and UCLA played, that the Ducks did not play, is Arizona State. The more Arizona State loses, the more it hurts USC and UCLA's tiebreaker chances, thus improving Oregon's odds.