Ducks Attack Message Board Forum

As expected, Oregon is the top-ranked 1-loss team in the first CFP Poll at #6.

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Looking at the opponents, Oregon should likely control their own destiny. Ohio St, michigan should take care of itself. Oregon beats UW, the #4 should be in hand.

Id love it if an upset opened up a path to #3 in the rankings. I like our odds in a first round matchup against FSU/Michigan/tOSU a lot more than a Georgia team that seems to get better each week.

Not really sure where those upsets could live on the schedule, though. Michigan and OSU each have 3 more preseason games until they play each other. Maybe UM @ PSU in two weeks, but PSU doesn’t play offense. Georgia continues its tour of the SEC’s minor leagues and finishes with Mizzou, Ole Miss, and @UT), each of them have fatal flaws. Maybe one steps up and plays a compete game. FSU plays Miami in two weeks and finishes at Florida. Maybe Cristobal does us a solid? Or Maybe FSU isn’t that good and Florida catches them counting their chickens. All the while, we keep winning. One can hope.


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whosyourwally wrote:Id love it if an upset opened up a path to #3 in the rankings. I like our odds in a first round matchup against FSU/Michigan/tOSU a lot more than a Georgia team that seems to get better each week.

Not really sure where those upsets could live on the schedule, though. Michigan and OSU each have 3 more preseason games until they play each other. Maybe UM @ PSU in two weeks, but PSU doesn’t play offense. Georgia continues its tour of the SEC’s minor leagues and finishes with Mizzou, Ole Miss, and @UT), each of them have fatal flaws. Maybe one steps up and plays a compete game. FSU plays Miami in two weeks and finishes at Florida. Maybe Cristobal does us a solid? Or Maybe FSU isn’t that good and Florida catches them counting their chickens. All the while, we keep winning. One can hope.


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I hope the committee ends up leaving out Michigan in the end, it’d be a waste to have them in the playoffs knowing every win they have this season will be vacated. If Michigan beats tOSU and the CFP wises up that should be an easier path to 2 or 3. Plus I don’t think it’s a guarantee FSU wins out, they beat an overhyped LSU team but they’ve looked vulnerable in some games. Wouldn’t be surprised if they lost to Florida or in the ACC championship game.

OregonFan4Life wrote:

whosyourwally wrote:Id love it if an upset opened up a path to #3 in the rankings. I like our odds in a first round matchup against FSU/Michigan/tOSU a lot more than a Georgia team that seems to get better each week.

Not really sure where those upsets could live on the schedule, though. Michigan and OSU each have 3 more preseason games until they play each other. Maybe UM @ PSU in two weeks, but PSU doesn’t play offense. Georgia continues its tour of the SEC’s minor leagues and finishes with Mizzou, Ole Miss, and @UT), each of them have fatal flaws. Maybe one steps up and plays a compete game. FSU plays Miami in two weeks and finishes at Florida. Maybe Cristobal does us a solid? Or Maybe FSU isn’t that good and Florida catches them counting their chickens. All the while, we keep winning. One can hope.


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I hope the committee ends up leaving out Michigan in the end, it’d be a waste to have them in the playoffs knowing every win they have this season will be vacated. If Michigan beats tOSU and wises up that should be an easier path to 2 or 3. Plus I don’t think it’s a guarantee FSU wins out, they beat an overhyped LSU team but they’ve looked vulnerable in some games. Wouldn’t be surprised if they lost to Florida or in the ACC championship game.

Michigan will not beat Ohio State. They haven't played anybody ranked this year. Penn State might beat them as well. They will have one loss and the ducks will pass them if they take care of business. Harbaugh will bolt for the NFL as soon as this cheating bastard gets exposed for the sign stealing.

Actually, I think we need Texas to lose, as well. They still have #25 ranked Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State and Texas Tech on their schedule, as well as a likely rematch with Oklahoma.

If they beat Oklahoma it would be redemption for their only loss and could result in them leapfrogging us.

If Alabama wins out that will make Texas win against them on the road even more impressive, as well.

I don't think we need Texas to lose, we simply need Oregon State and Washington to not completely crap the bed.

Ideal situation is Washington winning out, Utah going 3/4, and Oregon State going 2/4, which would mean all teams finishing within the top 25. There's some wiggle room there too, like if Oregon State beats UW (which I think is likely) then UW goes down but OSU is maybe close to a Top 10 team when we play them. (It really sucks that they lost to AZ.)

Crushing the Huskies in the CCG and exposing the 3-pt loss as a fluke would be icing on the cake.

I also think we get in simply by continuing to do what we've been doing. Oregon is winning BIG without having to pile it on in fourth quarters. We're doing it with super-efficient offense and a crushing every-down defense. We're acing the eye test right now and that matters.

There also should be some real discussion on whether an undefeated FSU team should get in over a one-loss Pac-12 or Big-12 team, especially when the losses were by the smallest of margins. The Pac-12 schedulue is far more brutal than the ACC.

Oregon, with a worse resume (SOS, OOC wins), passed Texas because of the eyeball test. That could change any Saturday, even if both teams win. If Oregon struggles to beat Cal and Texas smokes K State, Texas will likely pass Oregon in the next poll. Lackluster wins by UW the last two weeks took them out of the top four.

73duck wrote:Oregon, with a worse resume (SOS, OOC wins), passed Texas because of the eyeball test. That could change any Saturday, even if both teams win. If Oregon struggles to beat Cal and Texas smokes K State, Texas will likely pass Oregon in the next poll. Lackluster wins by UW the last two weeks took them out of the top four.

That strength of schedule has me scratching my head. Texas played #8 (road) and #9 (neutral site). Oregon played #5 (road) and #18 (road). Are Stanford and Hawai'i really a ton worse than Houston and BYU? In the middle, Kansas and Washington State are very comparable, as well.

Texas SOS is #5, Oregon's is #13. And in the minds of the committee, beating Bama decisively on the road is a big win, and it has been getting better each week. Sark played it up just the other day; he knows what's at stake.

I was pleasantly surprised to see Oregon ahead this week, but have no illusions about how it will come out if Oregon doesn't win convincingly down the stretch. Interestingly, Texas closes with a common opponent, Texas Tech. I don't expect them to pull starters in that game with what is on the line.

StevensTechU wrote:

73duck wrote:Oregon, with a worse resume (SOS, OOC wins), passed Texas because of the eyeball test. That could change any Saturday, even if both teams win. If Oregon struggles to beat Cal and Texas smokes K State, Texas will likely pass Oregon in the next poll. Lackluster wins by UW the last two weeks took them out of the top four.

That strength of schedule has me scratching my head. Texas played #8 (road) and #9 (neutral site). Oregon played #5 (road) and #18 (road). Are Stanford and Hawai'i really a ton worse than Houston and BYU? In the middle, Kansas and Washington State are very comparable, as well.

Lol, spoken like a true Duck fan. Since you asked, yes Kansas and BYU are much, much better than Stanford and Hawaii.
Plus you have to be concerned with media love affair with Texas. And Texas is probably closer to blue blood status than Oregon.

bellsduck wrote:

StevensTechU wrote:

73duck wrote:Oregon, with a worse resume (SOS, OOC wins), passed Texas because of the eyeball test. That could change any Saturday, even if both teams win. If Oregon struggles to beat Cal and Texas smokes K State, Texas will likely pass Oregon in the next poll. Lackluster wins by UW the last two weeks took them out of the top four.

That strength of schedule has me scratching my head. Texas played #8 (road) and #9 (neutral site). Oregon played #5 (road) and #18 (road). Are Stanford and Hawai'i really a ton worse than Houston and BYU? In the middle, Kansas and Washington State are very comparable, as well.

Lol, spoken like a true Duck fan. Since you asked, yes Kansas and BYU are much, much better than Stanford and Hawaii.
Plus you have to be concerned with media love affair with Texas. And Texas is probably closer to blue blood status than Oregon.

Sure, Kansas and BYU are better than Stanford and Hawai'i, but since that's not what I said, it's sort of irrelevant.

Kansas and Wazzu (which is what I said) on a neutral site is probably a pick'em in Vegas. Kansas narrowly escaped Nevada, and WSU beat Wisconsin for the second year in a row.

Houston (lost to Rice), BYU, Stanford, and Hawai'i are all outright bad teams.

StevensTechU wrote:

bellsduck wrote:

StevensTechU wrote:

73duck wrote:Oregon, with a worse resume (SOS, OOC wins), passed Texas because of the eyeball test. That could change any Saturday, even if both teams win. If Oregon struggles to beat Cal and Texas smokes K State, Texas will likely pass Oregon in the next poll. Lackluster wins by UW the last two weeks took them out of the top four.

That strength of schedule has me scratching my head. Texas played #8 (road) and #9 (neutral site). Oregon played #5 (road) and #18 (road). Are Stanford and Hawai'i really a ton worse than Houston and BYU? In the middle, Kansas and Washington State are very comparable, as well.

Lol, spoken like a true Duck fan. Since you asked, yes Kansas and BYU are much, much better than Stanford and Hawaii.
Plus you have to be concerned with media love affair with Texas. And Texas is probably closer to blue blood status than Oregon.

Sure, Kansas and BYU are better than Stanford and Hawai'i, but since that's not what I said, it's sort of irrelevant.

Kansas and Wazzu (which is what I said) on a neutral site is probably a pick'em in Vegas. Kansas narrowly escaped Nevada, and WSU beat Wisconsin for the second year in a row.

Houston (lost to Rice), BYU, Stanford, and Hawai'i are all outright bad teams.

You're right. Not what you said. That's what I get for typing and putting my kid to bed at the same time. Sorry about that.
We will have to just agree to disagree on this but I think Kansas beats WSU right now. BYU is better than you're saying and easily beats Stanford. And Houston is miles better than Hawaii. These are probably minor distinctions though in the playoff committee decision between Oregon and Texas.

Texas gets the benefit of being "almost" SEC and add in that they beat Bama.
Won't take much for that to factor in if it comes down to a head to head matchup for the # 4 spot.

One thing I do get weary of is the constant "sky is falling" mentality of some Duck fans, as if the college football powers-that-be are always out to get us, preventing us from achieving our goals. I mean, a certain amount of concern is understandable, I guess, but I think it really goes overboard. I can remember back in 2010, as we spent much of the year in the #2 spot (back when only the top two played in the BCS championship game), that people were freaking out because they were afraid that the Ducks hadn't beaten the Beavers in the final regular season game by "enough," and so we might lose our #2 spot! Just nuts! And last I checked, we were #2 in the inaugural CFP in 2014 . . . with one loss.