Ducks Attack Message Board Forum

Just for fun, and because I'm bored, I decided to take a look at the 11 recruits I mentioned in my other post, make pessimistic and an optimistic guesses on our percentage of getting them, and ran 100 random simulations to get an idea of what our "odds" look like for our final numbers.

Now obviously this is EXTREMELY unscientific, but think it at least gives a halfway decent idea of what we can expect moving forward...

My pessimistic view on our percentage chance to land the following players:
Shelton 10%, McReynolds 40%, Simmons 30%, Heyward 30%, Jackson 20%, Lewis 10%, Koa-Kai 10%, Dawson 30%, Lee 30%, Story 20%, Kelley 30%.

The Results: The following is how MANY of these players we "got" for each pessimistic percentage simulation.
-only 4% of the time did we not land ANY of these targets.
-96% of the time we got AT LEAST 1
-83% AT LEAST 2
-64% AT LEAST 3
-34% AT LEAST 4
-14% AT LEAST 5
-4% of the time we got AT LEAST 6 players, and
-1% of the time we even got 7 players.

My optimistic view on our percentage chance to land the following players:
Shelton 20%, McReynolds 60%, Simmons 50%, Heyward 50%, Jackson 30%, Lewis 20%, Koa-Kai 20%, Dawson 50%, Lee 50%, Story 30%, Kelley 40%.

The Results: The following is how MANY of these players we "got" for each optimistic percentage simulation.

-only once did we not land ANY of these targets.
-99% of the time we got AT LEAST 1
-98% AT LEAST 2
-90% AT LEAST 3
-71% AT LEAST 4
-39% AT LEAST 5
-16% of the time we got AT LEAST 6 players,
-9% of the time we even got 7 players.
-2% we got 8 players, and once, we got,
-9 players.

For reference, its looking like we have somewhere between 4 and 7 schollies left.

What does this all mean? If you can agree that the "real" likelihood of us getting each of these kids is somewhere between my optimistic and pessimistic estimates then these provide an idea of how realistic getting multiple of these guys really is (or could be). Case in point, averaging the two guesses would suggest that there's better than a 50% chance we land 4 of the guys on that list...

That's one heck of a bow!

glazeduck wrote:Just for fun, and because I'm bored, I decided to take a look at the 11 recruits I mentioned in my other post, make pessimistic and an optimistic guesses on our percentage of getting them, and ran 100 random simulations to get an idea of what our "odds" look like for our final numbers.

Now obviously this is EXTREMELY unscientific, but think it at least gives a halfway decent idea of what we can expect moving forward...

My pessimistic view on our percentage chance to land the following players:
Shelton 10%, McReynolds 40%, Simmons 30%, Heyward 30%, Jackson 20%, Lewis 10%, Koa-Kai 10%, Dawson 30%, Lee 30%, Story 20%, Kelley 30%.

The Results: The following is how MANY of these players we "got" for each pessimistic percentage simulation.
-only 4% of the time did we not land ANY of these targets.
-96% of the time we got AT LEAST 1
-83% AT LEAST 2
-64% AT LEAST 3
-34% AT LEAST 4
-14% AT LEAST 5
-4% of the time we got AT LEAST 6 players, and
-1% of the time we even got 7 players.

My optimistic view on our percentage chance to land the following players:
Shelton 20%, McReynolds 60%, Simmons 50%, Heyward 50%, Jackson 30%, Lewis 20%, Koa-Kai 20%, Dawson 50%, Lee 50%, Story 30%, Kelley 40%.

The Results: The following is how MANY of these players we "got" for each optimistic percentage simulation.

-only once did we not land ANY of these targets.
-99% of the time we got AT LEAST 1
-98% AT LEAST 2
-90% AT LEAST 3
-71% AT LEAST 4
-39% AT LEAST 5
-16% of the time we got AT LEAST 6 players,
-9% of the time we even got 7 players.
-2% we got 8 players, and once, we got,
-9 players.

For reference, its looking like we have somewhere between 4 and 7 schollies left.

What does this all mean? If you can agree that the "real" likelihood of us getting each of these kids is somewhere between my optimistic and pessimistic estimates then these provide an idea of how realistic getting multiple of these guys really is (or could be). Case in point, averaging the two guesses would suggest that there's better than a 50% chance we land 4 of the guys on that list...

That's one heck of a bow!

Good job. I think now though with Chip at the helm and going to the Natty should increase those percentages.

Bigducker wrote:
Good job. I think now though with Chip at the helm and going to the Natty should increase those percentages.

Thanks!

That was pretty much my point. We're in it for SO MANY studs at this point, with so few spots left, that the math almost guarantees a great ending.

Obviously humans don't necessarily work like math does, and my numbers don't account for scenarios that we'd avoid like when, say 5 or 6 of the players we "get" in a given simulation are all DL for instance.

I think we'd all be incredibly happy with 4 more of these guys, and even pessimistically, that looks very doable!

Funny... I was going to say we'd likely get 4-5 of these guys. Who knows... "The Natty" may be the wild card that pushes us over the top... landing that many or more! Add in the unknowns that will commit (those not mentioned in some time, or ever mentioned) and we're lookin' good!
Cool evaluation... thanks!

Also what about Jeoffrey Pagan ?
Haven't anything about him lately. He still has us listed as high on rivals. Hopefully we can still get him out for a visit. Him and Simmons would be my top 2 wants.