http://collegefootballmatrix.wordpress. ... gon-ducks/
Obviously these kinds of numbers don't win championships or even single games, but they sure make for good topics of conversation when we are all itchin' for some football!!!
Interesting Recruiting Matrix
Moderators: greenyellow, UOducksTK1
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RexSe7en
- One Star Recruit
- Posts: 35
- Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 3:15 pm
Interesting Recruiting Matrix
I'm sure many of you have seen this before, but for those who haven't, I'm sure you will find this interesting. It's a matrix that breaks down teams recruiting classes vs. success of the field and several other things are taken into account.
http://collegefootballmatrix.wordpress. ... gon-ducks/
Obviously these kinds of numbers don't win championships or even single games, but they sure make for good topics of conversation when we are all itchin' for some football!!!
http://collegefootballmatrix.wordpress. ... gon-ducks/
Obviously these kinds of numbers don't win championships or even single games, but they sure make for good topics of conversation when we are all itchin' for some football!!!
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cfbmatrix
- High School Drop Out
- Posts: 3
- Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2011 6:55 pm
Re: Interesting Recruiting Matrix
First, thank you for the link Rex
You are correct that numbers don't win games, player do but those number reflect the quality of players on a team. Take a quick snapshot of just a couple of 'recruiting rank' metrics
In the last 7 BCS title games the winner and loser of the games had a 4 year national recruiting rank composite of #18 or better. The winner in 5 of those 7 game has out recruited the other team.
The lowest 4 year ranked team to win an SEC title in the last 7 years - #9
The lowest 4 year ranked team to win an PAC12 title in the last 7 years - #16
The lowest 4 year ranked team to win an BIG12 title in the last 7 years - #11
The lowest 4 year ranked team to win an BIG TEN title in the last 7 years - #10
In the last 7 years there have been 186 conference and division winners. In all but 13 case the winner was in the top half of the division recruiting and in 36 of 41 out right or shared conference titles he last 6 years, the winner was in the top third in recruiting rankings for the conference. That in mind you can take out all but Oregon, USC, UCLA and Washington for the conference title (the rest have a 13% chance to win it) and in the divisions 85%+ odds go to Oregon, Stanford and Washington in the North and USC, UCLA and ASU in the south.
The percentage of games the Ducks have won or lost in the last 4 years based solely on comparing 4 year recruiting rankings is 84.6%.
Nothing is ever going to be perfect, but the recruiting ranking plus a home/away variable and coaching effect can come as close as most anything else out there..... and it is easily understood. If you have questions post them... i will check back to answer. If you are a number junkie, there is a ton of info in the free site.
Dave - UO '94
You are correct that numbers don't win games, player do but those number reflect the quality of players on a team. Take a quick snapshot of just a couple of 'recruiting rank' metrics
In the last 7 BCS title games the winner and loser of the games had a 4 year national recruiting rank composite of #18 or better. The winner in 5 of those 7 game has out recruited the other team.
The lowest 4 year ranked team to win an SEC title in the last 7 years - #9
The lowest 4 year ranked team to win an PAC12 title in the last 7 years - #16
The lowest 4 year ranked team to win an BIG12 title in the last 7 years - #11
The lowest 4 year ranked team to win an BIG TEN title in the last 7 years - #10
In the last 7 years there have been 186 conference and division winners. In all but 13 case the winner was in the top half of the division recruiting and in 36 of 41 out right or shared conference titles he last 6 years, the winner was in the top third in recruiting rankings for the conference. That in mind you can take out all but Oregon, USC, UCLA and Washington for the conference title (the rest have a 13% chance to win it) and in the divisions 85%+ odds go to Oregon, Stanford and Washington in the North and USC, UCLA and ASU in the south.
The percentage of games the Ducks have won or lost in the last 4 years based solely on comparing 4 year recruiting rankings is 84.6%.
Nothing is ever going to be perfect, but the recruiting ranking plus a home/away variable and coaching effect can come as close as most anything else out there..... and it is easily understood. If you have questions post them... i will check back to answer. If you are a number junkie, there is a ton of info in the free site.
Dave - UO '94