i've been thinking about this the past few weeks. let's take the coaching side out of it and just look at the players and talent coming back:duckgrad99 wrote:Has anyone noticed all of the pac-10 players declaring for the draft? Chase Budinger, Jordan Hill, Demar DeRozan, Daniel Hackett, Taj Gibson, James Harden, etc. That doesn't even include some top players graduating like Darren Collison, Justin Dentmon, Jon Brockman, etc. Oregon returns everyone, will probably play a much easier pac-10 schedule, has Dunlap, etc. With all of these factors, things set up perfectly for Oregon to finish in the top half of the pac-10 next season and make the tournament. I know it's much easier said than done(especially with Kent here), but if we cannot win next year then I give up.
Arizona: lacked depth last year / missed out on last 2 recruiting classes / losing Hill and Budinger more than likely / possibility Wise will leave too / of remaining players, only 1 was a big time recruit and none of them averaged over 7 pts / without Wise, this team could finish dead last in a Indiana-like rebuilding year
Arizona St: Harden is biggest loss of any pac 10 team / Penergraph is a senior / with Kuksiks, Glasser, Abott, Shipp, McMillian, Boateng, Lockett (incoming freshmen), the sun devils won't be a pushover but aren't a likely tourny team either
Stanford: Hill, Goods, Johnson, Brown all graduate / that leaves 3 players who avg over 5 pts per game / and they only had 6 conf wins last year / could be a near-lock for last place
Washington St: lose 5 seniors including Rochestie and Baynes / Klay Thompson is good but he's the only returning player who avg over 5 pts / their defense may help them win a few games but they look like a bottom tier team as well
Oregon St: return their top 4 scorers / pretty good recruiting class coming in / they've gotten the program out of the cellar and look better personnel wise than zona, stanford, and wash st / i put them at about the same tier as arizona st
USC: Hackett hired an agent so he's gone / Gibson yet to decide / DeRozan testing the waters / if all 3 are gone, that leaves Dwight Lewis, Leonard Washington / Sidney and Hill are solid recruits coming in (if they stick to their verbals) / i see a middle of the road finish unless Gibson and/or DeRozan come back and gel with the incoming class
UCLA: losing seniors: Collison, Shipp, Aboya / Jrue Holiday may also declare and leave / but this is still UCLA and they have talent ready to emerge and coming in / they'll be young but i still don't see them missing the tourny
Washington: Brockman and Dentmon gone / great PG coming in: Abdul Gaddy to pair up with I. Thomas / Overton, Pondexter, Gant, etc still make this a solid team / i'd be surprised if they're not in the top 3 in conf
Cal: even if a player or two declares, i'd suspect they're just testing the waters / if everyone's back, Cal may be the league champs or very close to it
Oregon: everyone back / freshmen become sophomores / depth is not a concern
so here's my breakdown:
tier 1: Cal, Washington
tier 2: UCLA, Oregon, USC
tier 3: Arizona St, Oregon St
tier 4: Washington St, Arizona, Stanford
i could see a 4th or 5th place finish by the Ducks; however, the league looks pretty weak in 09-10 so we'd need some quality wins in non conf to put us on the right side of the bubble

