Justin Herbert vs. Taylor Alie

[StevensTechU]

Even prior to reading this, http://fishduck.com/2015/10/a-recruitin ... n-herbert/ , I wanted to compare Oregon's current QB commit Justin Herbert to a player just a few years ahead of him at Sheldon, Taylor Alie. Thanks to the era we live in, we can watch them play in virtually every high school game they've been in via HUDL, and jump over to MaxPreps to see how they're doing statistically.

One of the initial critiques of Herbert was that he plays in a system where just about any QB can look good. Sheldon seems to produce highly productive passers every year, so it's hard to tell who is a high D-1 talent (Alex Brink, arguably Jordan Johnson) from who isn't (Taylor Alie). Alie, who we've seen in a Ducks jersey, had a similar career to what Herbert is experiencing; a position player who emerged as the full-time starter at QB as a senior, running one of the best teams in the state.

At this point in the season, Justin Herbert has played 7 games with a good mixture of competition ranging from Jesuit (very good), to South Medford/Tigard (pretty good) to Thurston (very bad). Going forward, we're likely going to see his stats look even better before evening out against stiffer competition in the playoffs. So overall, his performance in the remaining portion of the schedule will probably look a lot like his performance to date.

So without further ado, here's a comparison of each player's performance, shown two different ways

Justin Herbert (all games):
Record: 6-1
Points/Gm: 46.9 (excludes OT)
C%: 68.3%
Yds/Completion: 17.1
Yds/Attempt: 11.7
TD: 23
INT: 2
Rush Yds/Att: 5.3

Taylor Alie (all games):
Record: 14-0
Points/Gm: 42.4
C%: 68.6%
Yds/Completion: 12.9
Yds/Attempt: 8.8
TD: 35
INT: 9
Rush Yds/Att: 4.0

Now, this part was a pain in the ass, but it's something I feel is very important. Specifically, how does the QB perform when the going gets tough and they play the best (playoff caliber) teams?

Justin Herbert (Jesuit, Grants Pass, Tigard):
Record: 2-1
Points/Gm: 42.3 (excludes OT)
C%: 64.2%
Yds/Completion: 16.0
Yds/Attempt: 10.3
TD: 12
INT: 2
Rush Yds/Att: 2.8

Taylor Alie (Lake Oswego, Jesuit, Southridge 2x, Central Catholic):
Record: 4-0
Points/Gm: 35.6
C%: 69.2%
Yds/Completion: 10.5
Yds/Attempt: 7.2
TD: 10
INT: 5
Rush Yds/Att: 2.9

So I have two takeaways from this- First, you see that stiffer competition had a more significant effect on Alie- completion percentage actually goes up slightly but yards/completion, which were low to begin with, drop to essentially only dump-offs in big games. With Herbert, at 16 yds/completion, the numbers show he's still pushing the ball downfield. TD-to-INT ratio, a proxy for mistakes, also shows Herbert's superiority in big games.

And secondly, this reminds me a lot of comparing Mariota's numbers with Darron Thomas. Thomas was nice, no doubt, and he was very effective in the offense. But Mariota, if you go back and look at each's college statistics, was surpassing Thomas as a downfield passer with Yds/completion that show how much better an arm Mariota has, and having an even better TD-to-INT than Thomas did.

[woundedknees]

Nice analysis... Thank you.

[pdxduck]

The yards per completion and attempt are quite telling. I haven't seen Sheldon play this year, but it would appear Herbert is a much better downfield thrower than Alie was in HS. Which will be very important at the next level for JH. Part of the reason I cringed when Alie came in was because he was such a poor threat throwing downfield. And a one dimensional offense in the P12 is usually DOA.

[UOducksTK1]

Basically Herbert is slightly more efficient, especially against good competition. Thanks for the numbers, good stuff.

[StevensTechU]

Basically Herbert is slightly more efficient, especially against good competition. Thanks for the numbers, good stuff.

I took away from it that Alie was really efficient and good at running the Sheldon offense, but there are significant signs of concern. On the other hand, Herbert's talent allows him to perform whenever, wherever.

[srsmiley007]

Even prior to reading this, http://fishduck.com/2015/10/a-recruitin ... n-herbert/ , I wanted to compare Oregon's current QB commit Justin Herbert to a player just a few years ahead of him at Sheldon, Taylor Alie. Thanks to the era we live in, we can watch them play in virtually every high school game they've been in via HUDL, and jump over to MaxPreps to see how they're doing statistically.

One of the initial critiques of Herbert was that he plays in a system where just about any QB can look good. Sheldon seems to produce highly productive passers every year, so it's hard to tell who is a high D-1 talent (Alex Brink, arguably Jordan Johnson) from who isn't (Taylor Alie). Alie, who we've seen in a Ducks jersey, had a similar career to what Herbert is experiencing; a position player who emerged as the full-time starter at QB as a senior, running one of the best teams in the state.

At this point in the season, Justin Herbert has played 7 games with a good mixture of competition ranging from Jesuit (very good), to South Medford/Tigard (pretty good) to Thurston (very bad). Going forward, we're likely going to see his stats look even better before evening out against stiffer competition in the playoffs. So overall, his performance in the remaining portion of the schedule will probably look a lot like his performance to date.

So without further ado, here's a comparison of each player's performance, shown two different ways

Justin Herbert (all games):
Record: 6-1
Points/Gm: 46.9 (excludes OT)
C%: 68.3%
Yds/Completion: 17.1
Yds/Attempt: 11.7
TD: 23
INT: 2
Rush Yds/Att: 5.3

Taylor Alie (all games):
Record: 14-0
Points/Gm: 42.4
C%: 68.6%
Yds/Completion: 12.9
Yds/Attempt: 8.8
TD: 35
INT: 9
Rush Yds/Att: 4.0

Now, this part was a pain in the ass, but it's something I feel is very important. Specifically, how does the QB perform when the going gets tough and they play the best (playoff caliber) teams?

Justin Herbert (Jesuit, Grants Pass, Tigard):
Record: 2-1
Points/Gm: 42.3 (excludes OT)
C%: 64.2%
Yds/Completion: 16.0
Yds/Attempt: 10.3
TD: 12
INT: 2
Rush Yds/Att: 2.8

Taylor Alie (Lake Oswego, Jesuit, Southridge 2x, Central Catholic):
Record: 4-0
Points/Gm: 35.6
C%: 69.2%
Yds/Completion: 10.5
Yds/Attempt: 7.2
TD: 10
INT: 5
Rush Yds/Att: 2.9

So I have two takeaways from this- First, you see that stiffer competition had a more significant effect on Alie- completion percentage actually goes up slightly but yards/completion, which were low to begin with, drop to essentially only dump-offs in big games. With Herbert, at 16 yds/completion, the numbers show he's still pushing the ball downfield. TD-to-INT ratio, a proxy for mistakes, also shows Herbert's superiority in big games.

And secondly, this reminds me a lot of comparing Mariota's numbers with Darron Thomas. Thomas was nice, no doubt, and he was very effective in the offense. But Mariota, if you go back and look at each's college statistics, was surpassing Thomas as a downfield passer with Yds/completion that show how much better an arm Mariota has, and having an even better TD-to-INT than Thomas did.

One other item of note is the team around him. TA's team was loaded and possessed true D1 receivers and some serious OL. If anyone really looks into the players around him, I think you'll see that he is playing with lesser caliber players as well. There was a significant dropoff in this years talent around him and he has raised them up. Sound familiar (MM).

[Duck07]

If you really want to dig into the QB argument, Marcus is the only QB that Chip and Helfrich have truly developed, and his immense talents bring into question how much of that was natural vs learned.

[StevensTechU]

If you really want to dig into the QB argument, Marcus is the only QB that Chip and Helfrich have truly developed, and his immense talents bring into question how much of that was natural vs learned.

Helfrich has Darron Thomas, Andrew Walter, Grant Hedrick, and Mariota all to his name. 2x QB Coach of the Year for a reason.

[greenyellow]

If you really want to dig into the QB argument, Marcus is the only QB that Chip and Helfrich have truly developed, and his immense talents bring into question how much of that was natural vs learned.

Helfrich has Darron Thomas, Andrew Walter, Grant Hedrick, and Mariota all to his name. 2x QB Coach of the Year for a reason.

Maybe Helfrich should go back to working with the QBs since I don't think Frost is cutting it by himself. Chip would help out with Helfrich and the QBs so I don't see why Helfrich can't the same. Seems like a waste to not use one of the best QB developers more.

[Duck07]

If you really want to dig into the QB argument, Marcus is the only QB that Chip and Helfrich have truly developed, and his immense talents bring into question how much of that was natural vs learned.

Helfrich has Darron Thomas, Andrew Walter, Grant Hedrick, and Mariota all to his name. 2x QB Coach of the Year for a reason.

and yet only one of those QBs has made it in an NFL camp.

[StevensTechU]

I don't know if it's coaching... I think Alie & Lockie just stink. I don't think Bill Walsh could make those two successful.

[lukeyrid13]

I don't know if it's coaching... I think Alie & Lockie just stink. I don't think Bill Walsh could make those two successful.

The problem is strikin out on qb recruiting since Marcus. Jake rod got hurt, lockie was a backup plan and Morgan has busted so far. Jonsen and Herbert we hope work out but that's a few years down the line. Frankly what we need and have never gotten is a someone like deshaun Watson or kyler Murray from last year that is top flight and ready to change games from the start.

[StevensTechU]

Agreed that it's a recruiting problem. J-Rod was a physical talent but still doesn't know what to do about college-level safeties. Lockie and Hobbs aren't/weren't D1 quality arms. Alie is a walk-on. Seems the problem hasn't been just that they aren't hitting it out of the park with QB recruits, but they're not even getting on base. The Big-12 has some of the best quarterbacks in the country, and none (Boykin, Mahomes, Mayfield, Russell) were highly recruited.

One of Mahalak/Jonsen/Herbert/Wilson has got to pan out. And I feel pretty good abut the OL they'll have in front of them.

[gofightingducks]

Agreed that it's a recruiting problem. J-Rod was a physical talent but still doesn't know what to do about college-level safeties. Lockie and Hobbs aren't/weren't D1 quality arms. Alie is a walk-on. Seems the problem hasn't been just that they aren't hitting it out of the park with QB recruits, but they're not even getting on base. The Big-12 has some of the best quarterbacks in the country, and none (Boykin, Mahomes, Mayfield, Russell) were highly recruited.

One of Mahalak/Jonsen/Herbert/Wilson has got to pan out. And I feel pretty good abut the OL they'll have in front of them.

Look at Baylor, they just keep plugging them in even though they might not be the most highly recruited or most talented. Every coach and team misses on recruits but the great coaches both coach up and develop what they have and work with their strengths. Chip Kelly did that. He only had Mariota one season, he had a JC transfer in Masoli, an athlete in Darron Thomas and he coached up and used Dixon's strengths, even when those guys were hurt he figured out ways to win with the back-ups for the most part. Its speaks to the unpreparedness and inexperience of the coaches in handling the post Mariota era.

[StevensTechU]

Look at Baylor, they just keep plugging them in even though they might not be the most highly recruited or most talented.

It's interesting. Baylor asks very little from their quarterbacks from a mental standpoint. There was an article written in the WSJ ("Why the NFL Has a Quarterbacks Crisis") that spilled the beans that Bryce Petty never learned how to read a front or coverage. Also, even though Russell and formerly Nick Florence maybe aren't NFL talents, they're still light years ahead of Lockie/Alie, so Briles isn't turning water into wine by any stretch. Where Art Briles has really succeeded, in my eyes, is identifying talent that is getting overlooked by others and that fits his system.