An "Oregon Bump"

[StevensTechU]

It used to be, in the Belotti and Chip days, and even into the short-lived Helfrich era, that players who committed to Oregon were in jeopardy of having their recruiting ranking lowered. Oregon fans online frequently complained about this phenomena, where a player would have a set ranking before commitment, choose Oregon, then have that ranking lowered down the line. Annoyingly, it arbitrarily lowered Oregon's recruiting class ranking relative to the actual talent coming in. It wasn't infrequent, and it was a large part of why Oregon was crushing teams despite so many "3-star" players.

Following last year's class, and especially this year's class, it seems that the tide has completely turned. Players who are 3* before they commit to Oregon are getting bumped to 4*. Uncommitted 4* players are 5* or fringe 5* after they commit to Oregon. Just today, Jeffrey Bassa, a jumbo wide receiver who Oregon thinks could be a player on defense, was just bumped from 3- to 4-star. Frankly put, if he chose to commit to his hometown Utah Utes, this wouldn't have happened.

I'm as happy as anybody that Oregon is pulling in top 10 recruiting classes, but I'm making this post as a soft warning. The last two classes are great, but they're also arbitrarily high. Compared to yesteryear where they were arbitrarily low, there's going to be a gap in recruiting rankings bigger than the actual gap in talent.

Sorry for this dose of even-keeledness. Oregon is recruiting fantastic, but thought it was something to keep in the back of our collective minds.

[GoDucksTroll]

You’re not the only one Stu. I have also noticed the change of what I used to call the Duck Dip, the antithesis to the Bama Bump.

I have several theories and/or factors that aren’t mutually exclusive and could be working in combination.

* Oregon is getting respect as a program that can pick and choose recruits.
* With 247 taking over Scout one recruiting service service making adjustments to rankings is more noticeable both in the composite and because there are fewer options. Since ESPN barely does anything recruiting rankings wisen a move on Rivals or 247 feels more noticeable.
* Partially this could be Baader-Meinhoff and we’re noticing it more even if it’s not happening more often. Some of our current recruits have gone down, and some of our past recruits under previous regimes would also go up.
* In the past Oregon was more likely to lose out on recruits who had skyrocketing stock. I have a few examples of Oregon finding a kid they liked, offering before other comparable schools, not getting a commit, and the recruit moving up.
* Evaluator bias. Hey this kid has an offer from both Georgia and Oregon, he must be better than the one with offers only from lower schools.
* The recruiting budget, number of interns and staff to prescreen tape and everything has been way bigger than ever. Evaluations improving is possible.
* Recruiting confidence means not having to scour for late bloomers.

[chapelhillduck]

Just curious, who are the fringe 5 stars? From what I’ve seen, both Ty and Kingsley seem to back it up

(Not disagreeing with the overall thought though)


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[StevensTechU]

Just curious, who are the fringe 5 stars? From what I’ve seen, both Ty and Kingsley seem to back it up

(Not disagreeing with the overall thought though)


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247 stopped making it visible when they changed player rankings and what it was previously, but both of the guys you named have received increased ratings since committing. The source of that bump is debatable. Kingsley might frankly be getting a "Penei bump," benefiting from comparisons to the soon-to-be first rounder.

This cycle, there's no doubt in my mind that Jackson Light, Daymon David, Jeffrey Bassa, Darren Barkins, and likely others, are presently rated higher than they would be if they were committed to Washington State.

[greenyellow]

Based on the new rankings, it was a mixed bag for Oregon commits. Overall, there a net loss of about 8 ranking slots.

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[OrTDuck]

There was an article comparing the semi-final matchup between Clemson and tOSU based on recruiting rankings (eleven warriors.com).

Roughly the average starting 22 composition of those teams was:

16 top 250
5 between 251-800
1 over 800
9 top 40

This year Oregon was something like:

11 top 250
8 between 251-800
3 over 800
2 top 40

So, not there yet. I could reasonably see starters (not just picking the highest rated guys but forcasting a bit) as early as 2022:

16 top 250
5 between 251-800
1 over 800
6 top 40

So, other than maybe still a bit behind in top 40 recruits, the profile is nearly in-line (maybe it still picks up one or two this year or next). There also is 247's "blue chip" ratio, which is usually about 15 teams at over 50%, that have some chance to win a NC. Oregon should move from under the 50% mark to about 54% or so this class (depending on how one wants to count it, 5+4 stars are about 48). Next year's shuffle maybe another bump.

Says nothing about coaching, player development, schemes, etc. But the profile is at least getting closer soon.