Last 2 Classes - '21 and '22

[StevensTechU]

I do this every year as the current class starts to take shape in order to see where needs may exist after the current sophomores-seniors move on. The 'eligibility holiday' made me tempted to look at this as an aggregate of the last three classes, but I kept it to two as I still think it's a really good indicator of where holes may or may not pop up. Ultimately, guys get an extra year of eligibility, but it doesn't prolong when they become eligible for the NFL draft, so I left it as-is.

QB (1 spot)- Thompson, Bailey
RB (1)- Cardwell, McGee
WR (3)- Franklin, Thornton, Brevard, Sategna, Anderson, Johnson, *All signs point to adding one more
TE (1)- Ferguson, Matavao, Dollar
Interior OL (3)- Powers-Johnson, Miller, Iuli
Exterior OL (2)- Suamataia, Walden, Wooten, Banks, Williams

DL (3)- Williams, Halton, Mells
ILB (2)- Flowe (little), Brown, Dudley
OLB/DE (2)- Buckner, McNeil, Tilmon, Winston
Nickel (1)- Bassa, Hullaby
S (2)- David, Williams
CB (2)- Davies, Barkins, Dickerson, Florence

*Lewis (JUCO) in 2022 class at OT.

[jimmy12]

I do this every year as the current class starts to take shape in order to see where needs may exist after the current sophomores-seniors move on. The 'eligibility holiday' made me tempted to look at this as an aggregate of the last three classes, but I kept it to two as I still think it's a really good indicator of where holes may or may not pop up. Ultimately, guys get an extra year of eligibility, but it doesn't prolong when they become eligible for the NFL draft, so I left it as-is.

QB (1 spot)- Thompson, Bailey
RB (1)- Cardwell, McGee
WR (3)- Franklin, Thornton, Brevard, Sategna, Anderson, Johnson, *All signs point to adding one more
TE (1)- Ferguson, Matavao, Dollar
Interior OL (3)- Powers-Johnson, Miller, Iuli
Exterior OL (2)- Suamataia, Walden, Wooten, Banks, Williams

DL (3)- Williams, Halton, Mells
ILB (2)- Flowe (little), Brown, Dudley
OLB/DE (2)- Buckner, McNeil, Tilmon, Winston
Nickel (1)- Bassa, Hullaby
S (2)- David, Williams
CB (2)- Davies, Barkins, Dickerson, Florence

*Lewis (JUCO) in 2022 class at OT.

Summary? thoughts on needs based on these?

[StevensTechU]

Summary? thoughts on needs based on these?

Based solely on numbers it looks like good roster management with a couple scholarships left to use in this class. Biggest needs are definitely DL and Safety. With 85 scholarships for ~25 positions (including specialists), you're looking for roughly a 2-deep within two classes (just less with transfers/retirements but also considering some guys stay longer than four years). In the new defensive configuration, the Nickel (which I think the term is "Star" now) is really a hybrid safety-linebacker, as they want someone who can play in the box and take on blockers but who can get out into coverage, as well. This is why they're recruiting 'big safeties' who maybe aren't the greatest in coverage (Bassa '21, Hullaby '22). So at DE, DT, and Safety, they've got exactly a 1-deep so far with two classes of guys.

Based on talent I'm a little uncomfortable about edge rusher and I don't know what we've got with ILB, but I'm even more concerned about safety. In my opinion, I think Trejon Williams is an athletic 3-star who is fine, but he doesn't pop at camps and doesn't dominate in a bad league (Portland Interscholastic). He could develop but he's not instinctual, so there's risk. Maybe Barkins or Florence moves to safety, but I think they're 3-star types of guys, as well. I'm probably alone on this, but I don't see a QB here who is going to lead Oregon to a natty. I think USC's Jaxson Dart was the best 2020 QB signed in the conference, and I think Bailey is a career backup kinda guy. It doesn't help that I like uw's QB commit better than Bailey, but Cristobal really likes getting guys committed early and sometimes that means you don't really know what you're getting and then you're stuck. I also don't think there's a lot of talent on the edge. I think Winston isn't an Oregon-caliber player and don't yet know what to think of Tilmon, but in any case we're going to have a big dropoff after KT and probably another decline after Swinson.

[GoDucksTroll]

Summary? thoughts on needs based on these?

Based solely on numbers it looks like good roster management with a couple scholarships left to use in this class. Biggest needs are definitely DL and Safety. With 85 scholarships for ~25 positions (including specialists), you're looking for roughly a 2-deep within two classes (just less with transfers/retirements but also considering some guys stay longer than four years). In the new defensive configuration, the Nickel (which I think the term is "Star" now) is really a hybrid safety-linebacker, as they want someone who can play in the box and take on blockers but who can get out into coverage, as well. This is why they're recruiting 'big safeties' who maybe aren't the greatest in coverage (Bassa '21, Hullaby '22). So at DE, DT, and Safety, they've got exactly a 1-deep so far with two classes of guys.

Based on talent I'm a little uncomfortable about edge rusher and I don't know what we've got with ILB, but I'm even more concerned about safety. In my opinion, I think Trejon Williams is an athletic 3-star who is fine, but he doesn't pop at camps and doesn't dominate in a bad league (Portland Interscholastic). He could develop but he's not instinctual, so there's risk. Maybe Barkins or Florence moves to safety, but I think they're 3-star types of guys, as well. I'm probably alone on this, but I don't see a QB here who is going to lead Oregon to a natty. I think USC's Jaxson Dart was the best 2020 QB signed in the conference, and I think Bailey is a career backup kinda guy. It doesn't help that I like uw's QB commit better than Bailey, but Cristobal really likes getting guys committed early and sometimes that means you don't really know what you're getting and then you're stuck. I also don't think there's a lot of talent on the edge. I think Winston isn't an Oregon-caliber player and don't yet know what to think of Tilmon, but in any case we're going to have a big dropoff after KT and probably another decline after Swinson.

I disagree on Williams - he’s a 4-star talent for sure.

The golden rule in recruiting HS to CFB is (Potential and Athletic Traits) > (High school performance/production).

Williams can hit and has rare athleticism not often seen in Oregon kids. If he had that athleticism but was afraid of contact I’d be more hesitant, I think he’s a legit 4-star talent.

As far as edge rushers they really need Cyrus Moss for the future. I am pretty high on Tilmon, not a lot of under the radar recruits in our 2021 class but he just was great his senior year. Not as athletic as Justin Hollins was, but with coaching and the weight room I think he has started potential down the line. Dave Campbell’s Tx HS FB was very high on him, bumped him up to a 4-star in their ratings.

I think the problem we might see is with OC/DC turnover and recruits having to play out of position. Moorhead loves TEs, next guy might not. DeRuyter and Avalos want a box safety which is pretty common now, but not every DC wants that.

[jimmy12]

Summary? thoughts on needs based on these?

Based solely on numbers it looks like good roster management with a couple scholarships left to use in this class. Biggest needs are definitely DL and Safety. With 85 scholarships for ~25 positions (including specialists), you're looking for roughly a 2-deep within two classes (just less with transfers/retirements but also considering some guys stay longer than four years). In the new defensive configuration, the Nickel (which I think the term is "Star" now) is really a hybrid safety-linebacker, as they want someone who can play in the box and take on blockers but who can get out into coverage, as well. This is why they're recruiting 'big safeties' who maybe aren't the greatest in coverage (Bassa '21, Hullaby '22). So at DE, DT, and Safety, they've got exactly a 1-deep so far with two classes of guys.

Based on talent I'm a little uncomfortable about edge rusher and I don't know what we've got with ILB, but I'm even more concerned about safety. In my opinion, I think Trejon Williams is an athletic 3-star who is fine, but he doesn't pop at camps and doesn't dominate in a bad league (Portland Interscholastic). He could develop but he's not instinctual, so there's risk. Maybe Barkins or Florence moves to safety, but I think they're 3-star types of guys, as well. I'm probably alone on this, but I don't see a QB here who is going to lead Oregon to a natty. I think USC's Jaxson Dart was the best 2020 QB signed in the conference, and I think Bailey is a career backup kinda guy. It doesn't help that I like uw's QB commit better than Bailey, but Cristobal really likes getting guys committed early and sometimes that means you don't really know what you're getting and then you're stuck. I also don't think there's a lot of talent on the edge. I think Winston isn't an Oregon-caliber player and don't yet know what to think of Tilmon, but in any case we're going to have a big dropoff after KT and probably another decline after Swinson.

There's a lot of wait and see. I think we're in a good position at ILB. Brown, Flowe Jr and LaDuke. All are strong players.

If the Ducks land Damari Dent the S position gets a big boos. He, apparently, was the best player at SNL. So good that they shut him down to not expose him to other schools.

[StevensTechU]

I disagree on Williams - he’s a 4-star talent for sure.

The golden rule in recruiting HS to CFB is (Potential and Athletic Traits) > (High school performance/production).

I agree with you that there are positions where you may want to just take size and athleticism. Give me a 6'7 basketball player who weighs 270 and I'll give you an offensive tackle or defensive end. But that idea doesn't work for every position equally, and I think becomes a trap for teams at times because they recruit athletes for positions that need 'football players' who are athletic. Lets talk about the examples at Oregon-

Group 1 (Super athletes who were not great DBs in high school): Ty Griffin, Daewood Davis, Tyree Robinson, Malik Lovette, Scott Grady
Group 2 (Less athletic recruits displayed good instincts & production in HS): Bennett Williams, Brian Jackson, Erick Dargan, Trikweze Bridges, Avery Patterson, Cliff Harris, Jihree Stewart

Based on the data I see, it looks like Oregon has had more success recruiting really good DB players who have the minimum athleticism than it has in taking super athletes who didn't produce in HS. I would frame this as "Instincts trumps athleticism when athleticism doesn't have instincts." Griffin and Davis were the fastest guys on the team when they were Ducks and it resulted in no starts. So if a guy has the tools to dominate in high school but isn't, you really need to understand why.

I wrote this in a previous discussion we had that I think there is a minimum level of athleticism you take. I've ranted that Bridges, who was clocked at a 4.95 laser timed 40 in high school, should not have been recruited, because I think his lack of speed is a liability in virtually any non-goal line situation. Conversely, I wanted Oregon to recruit Bennett Williams out of high school, even though he runs around a 4.65.

So there are no 'golden rules,' IMO. Athleticism or instincts alone get you nowhere based on what I've seen. If we were talking about a different position group, I may have a totally different opinion, but for DB, it seems pretty clear to me.

[GoDucksTroll]

The list of former Ducks is a bit deceiving, due to a variety of factors:
A. Some of those were not recruited to be DBs. Lovett and Daewoo were WRs who had to convert out of necessity. Ty Griffin was a transfer that went to GaTech to play QB and Oregon sweetened Taj’s pot by bringing along his brother.
B. You’re listing players coached by a different position coach, S&C team.
C. Cliff Harris was not the fastest guy, but I think we can agree that athleticism is more than speed: body control, hand eye coordination, agility, and so many things that can’t be measured all go into that.

We’ve had the discussion before where I listed my minimums needed to be successful, although that was for CB. I think safety is a bit more lenient, but given the choice I’d take decent production and elite athlete over the elite production. Look at Oregon’s roster, and what the walk-ons did in high school.

We hear this “didn’t dominate in HS how is he a 4-star?” talk all the time with local prospects. It was the case with Keith Brown, let’s see how he pans out. Same with La’Mar Winston, and he was a good player for us. I played against Ndamumong Suh’s Grant team, and he wasn’t the best DL we saw that year; we were told to expect a wrecking ball and the only thing that was different was how quick he could move in pursuit. An old friend posted some digitized grainy video from that game last year. At times Suh got manhandled by our 6’3” 320 pound guard that looked like a middle aged accountant who had male pattern baldness from age 15. That guy isn’t an accountant now, he’s an actuary, and Suh can still throw an NFL guard around.

[StevensTechU]

Can you clarify why what position they were recruited for makes a difference? My point is you can't just recruit an athlete and make them a productive college defensive back just because they're athletic, and gave evidence.

Happy to have the linebacker and defensive lineman conversation separately. Like I said in my last post, different positions have had success in different ways. I don't think it's a good idea to say that what works at defensive line should be the strategy for recruiting quarterbacks, as an example.

[GoDucksTroll]

Can you clarify why what position they were recruited for makes a difference? My point is you can't just recruit an athlete and make them a productive college defensive back just because they're athletic, and gave evidence.

Happy to have the linebacker and defensive lineman conversation separately. Like I said in my last post, different positions have had success in different ways. I don't think it's a good idea to say that what works at defensive line should be the strategy for recruiting quarterbacks, as an example.

Sorry, brevity has never been my strength.

Why their initial position matters is that they are on the roster to begin with because they were recruited to play offense. Maybe the strategy was to give someone a shot at offense and then if that doesn’t work give them reps on D, but that isn’t relevant to Trejon Williams.

Not all great athletes will be great football players, but most great football players are great athletes. That’s the bottom line.

You listed off guys that were great athletes but weren’t great DBs. They were also not intended to be DBs in the first place. Lovette, Ty Griffin, and Daewood at least showed they had business on a D-1 football field, not everyone on scholarship becomes what we consider a good player.

The other big reason is that switching sides of the ball is oftentimes detrimental to development, with two of those guys it was necessity. Maybe Lovette would have been a contributor as an upperclassman had he not kept flipping positions and coaches. Daewood switched 4x? Malik Lovette was switched to defense halfway though his freshman year, redshirt freshman year he played CB (2 starts), and his RS sophomore year he was back at being bad as a WR. Maybe he just wasn’t as good of a football player as initially thought. Daewood was a last second Willie addition and admirably chipped in for his recruiting rank.

Semi relevant, some guys can play both sides at a Pac-12 level: Jeff Maehl was a DB for most of his freshman year, Schooler is a recent example, and Charles Nelson was a firecracker. They ranged from subpar (Schoolie) to very good (Nelson) to one of the best in school history at his position (Maehl).

Back to Trejon. Reading this you’d think he was some under achiever. He’s noticeable right away on film. He has decent stats, both on offense and defense. He can make the type of play that most high school safeties only dream of. It’s difficult to critique his speed, agility, and tackling. Size is adequate. That just leaves play recognition and instincts, which are the most important part of playing DB/S (assuming the physical/athletic minimums are met) and the hardest to project and evaluate. Those are also the ones that can be coached up. He’s being coached by Damian Lillard’s brother, not Nick Saban.

[GrantDuck]

Would love an Eric Dargan type on this team going forward at safety.

Getting top flight interior and edge guys to me is just the key to having an elite defense in CFB, so Moss is a big key for us in this class for sure.

[buckmarkduck]

Would love an Eric Dargan type on this team going forward at safety.

Getting top flight interior and edge guys to me is just the key to having an elite defense in CFB, so Moss is a big key for us in this class for sure.

What’s a Dargan type S? UO has had tons and tons of great safety’s, Dargan isn’t one of them.

[lukeyrid13]

Dargan was a good and consistent safety.

Chung, Keith Lewis, Boyett and TJ Ward were all better, but if a Dargan level player is our SS any given year, that is a great barometer.

[buckmarkduck]

You know how many times Dargan would give up ground before making the tackle? Lots. Especially his first 3 years. In the loss to UA, he actually ran backward 20 yards before tackling the RB. The guy was big, but played small. I’d take Patterson, Ugo, Boyett, Obviously Holland and even breeze over him. And that’s just guys from the last 8-9 years. Not to mention all the studs before that. Give me a JD Nelson and Tj Ward everyday over a guy who doesn’t want to hit hard. I don’t care if Nelson would be kicked out of half the games now.

[StevensTechU]

Erick Dargan had 7 interceptions in 2014 alone. Has anyone touched that since?