Justin Herbert vs. Taylor Alie

[dthomas=ddixon]

Ok. I didn't mean to get all up on my high horse there. I just get a little sensitive about criticizing kids for something other than how they play. Probably a little too touchy there.

No worries, I'm with you on that. It was a bad attempt at a joke anyways ha.

[Duck07]

Man, I was expecting 3 pages of analysis on Herbert from people who have seen him play. oh well

Here's the skinny, StevensTech and I have both chimed in other topics. I did early analysis and flew back to Oregon to catch some games and hook up with family so I had a chance to pursue onsite diligence. That said, here's what you what we shared in other analysis. These are my takeaways:

A.) Incredible arm strength, arguably the best arm we've ever recruited.(90+mph fastball)
B.) Equal to or more accurate then MM.
C.) Career 70% completion percentage. Avg. roughly 12+ yards per throw. Only 2 Int's ever thrown (against the #1 team in the state...which went to double OT).
D.) Not as fast as MM but has good speed and runs strong.
E.) Incredible pocket awareness.
F.) Excellent with progressions.
G.) Pressure passing: Elite (makes pinpoint throws under extreme pressure with guys hanging on him.)
H.) Intangibles: Virtually every team he has played on has either won the State championship or been in the semi's (Basketball, Baseball and football)
Notables: Elite Baseball Pitcher won the state championship last year and was arguably one of the best pitchers in Oregon. Throws 90+ mph. Won state basketball championship with his brother as a sophomore, Baseball Championship as a junior, injured after a couple of games junior year, missed remainder of football and basketball seasons. Returned in time for baseball.

Conclusion: Best QB recruit I've seen us land. MM was faster but this kid has a better arm and a flat out winner in virtually everything he does. With limited experience and camp exposure I believe we landed the diamond in the rough and have MM2.0 (not as fast but great head, incredible arm). How he isn't ranked higher is just mind boggling.

Excerpt:
Plays in an offense that is similiar to ours and he sets before he throws in pocket. Throws excellent on the run. For a kid to be at 70% completions with an Oline that is sieve is impressive. He has a cannon arm that is extremely accurate. He makes throws to the appropriate shoulder which is very unique for this level of football. Watch his film it's extremely impressive. His skill is beyond Terry Wilson's and the types of throws he makes (under duress), his reads and pocket awareness are unique. Strong in the pocket and scrambling, doesn't go down easy (like Ben Rothlisberger).

FYI - There's a reason we dumped Green in favor of this unranked kid. The points shared above are the reason. Had he played 3 games last year before getting injured he would've already been in the fold. At an Oregon HS, without camp exposure, he isn't going to get more than 2-3 stars. He was completely off the radar screen of all the serious players. This kid is a winner, a top pitcher for the state champion Irish, he bypassed camp exposure to support his team in their pursuit of a championship. He plays Basketball as well and won the state championship as a sophomore (missed last season due to football injury). This kid has a winning mindset and appears to be great at almost any sport. This is what you need. This is what we need.

Holy cow if half of what you say is true.

He told no lies.

[OregonFan4Life]

Gosh everything about Herbert is so true, Mario deserves a smack in the face for not utilizing Herbert. That 2019 team should’ve been in the playoffs.

[RanDux]

Even prior to reading this, http://fishduck.com/2015/10/a-recruitin ... n-herbert/ , I wanted to compare Oregon's current QB commit Justin Herbert to a player just a few years ahead of him at Sheldon, Taylor Alie. Thanks to the era we live in, we can watch them play in virtually every high school game they've been in via HUDL, and jump over to MaxPreps to see how they're doing statistically.

One of the initial critiques of Herbert was that he plays in a system where just about any QB can look good. Sheldon seems to produce highly productive passers every year, so it's hard to tell who is a high D-1 talent (Alex Brink, arguably Jordan Johnson) from who isn't (Taylor Alie). Alie, who we've seen in a Ducks jersey, had a similar career to what Herbert is experiencing; a position player who emerged as the full-time starter at QB as a senior, running one of the best teams in the state.

At this point in the season, Justin Herbert has played 7 games with a good mixture of competition ranging from Jesuit (very good), to South Medford/Tigard (pretty good) to Thurston (very bad). Going forward, we're likely going to see his stats look even better before evening out against stiffer competition in the playoffs. So overall, his performance in the remaining portion of the schedule will probably look a lot like his performance to date.

So without further ado, here's a comparison of each player's performance, shown two different ways

Justin Herbert (all games):
Record: 6-1
Points/Gm: 46.9 (excludes OT)
C%: 68.3%
Yds/Completion: 17.1
Yds/Attempt: 11.7
TD: 23
INT: 2
Rush Yds/Att: 5.3

Taylor Alie (all games):
Record: 14-0
Points/Gm: 42.4
C%: 68.6%
Yds/Completion: 12.9
Yds/Attempt: 8.8
TD: 35
INT: 9
Rush Yds/Att: 4.0

Now, this part was a pain in the ass, but it's something I feel is very important. Specifically, how does the QB perform when the going gets tough and they play the best (playoff caliber) teams?

Justin Herbert (Jesuit, Grants Pass, Tigard):
Record: 2-1
Points/Gm: 42.3 (excludes OT)
C%: 64.2%
Yds/Completion: 16.0
Yds/Attempt: 10.3
TD: 12
INT: 2
Rush Yds/Att: 2.8

Taylor Alie (Lake Oswego, Jesuit, Southridge 2x, Central Catholic):
Record: 4-0
Points/Gm: 35.6
C%: 69.2%
Yds/Completion: 10.5
Yds/Attempt: 7.2
TD: 10
INT: 5
Rush Yds/Att: 2.9

So I have two takeaways from this- First, you see that stiffer competition had a more significant effect on Alie- completion percentage actually goes up slightly but yards/completion, which were low to begin with, drop to essentially only dump-offs in big games. With Herbert, at 16 yds/completion, the numbers show he's still pushing the ball downfield. TD-to-INT ratio, a proxy for mistakes, also shows Herbert's superiority in big games.

And secondly, this reminds me a lot of comparing Mariota's numbers with Darron Thomas. Thomas was nice, no doubt, and he was very effective in the offense. But Mariota, if you go back and look at each's college statistics, was surpassing Thomas as a downfield passer with Yds/completion that show how much better an arm Mariota has, and having an even better TD-to-INT than Thomas did.

Such a shame that Mirabal/Cristobal lost track of Herbert's ability to throw downfield.

[dthomas=ddixon]

What’s amazing is how accurately smiley predicted the NFL version of Herbert. Gotta be one of the all-time predictions/analyses on this board ha.

[RanDux]

What’s amazing is how accurately smiley predicted the NFL version of Herbert. Gotta be one of the all-time predictions/analyses on this board ha.

Yep, he nailed it!

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[nogerO]

Gosh everything about Herbert is so true, Mario deserves a smack in the face for not utilizing Herbert. That 2019 team should’ve been in the playoffs.

Mario was one stubborn son of a bitch for sure.

[Alan]

Gosh everything about Herbert is so true, Mario deserves a smack in the face for not utilizing Herbert. That 2019 team should’ve been in the playoffs.

Mario was one stubborn son of a bitch for sure.

I wonder how much Mario is having to own this? Goes to the NFL and rookie of the year, pro bowl and Mario just pounded it up the middle. Take a look Miami.

[lmduck]

Gosh everything about Herbert is so true, Mario deserves a smack in the face for not utilizing Herbert. That 2019 team should’ve been in the playoffs.

Mario was one stubborn son of a bitch for sure.

I wonder how much Mario is having to own this? Goes to the NFL and rookie of the year, pro bowl and Mario just pounded it up the middle. Take a look Miami.

The Miami fans believe he will deliver a championship in 2-3 years. Gotta love their optimism.

I guess today on some sports talkshow on ESPN ( I did not see or hear it so this is second hand from a friend who did) Maddog (don't know who he is) riped MC. Said he's a great recruiter but can't coach and suggested people look at Oregon's games last year against Utah (both games) and Stanford if they want proof. I guess Maddog also said anyone who thinks MC will replace Saban at 'Bama is totally nuts.

Grist for the mill.


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[RanDux]

Gosh everything about Herbert is so true, Mario deserves a smack in the face for not utilizing Herbert. That 2019 team should’ve been in the playoffs.

He was drastically underutilized. I grew so tired of them not passing downfield. He also dealt with a weak WR room. He is showing now in the NFL what could have been in college.

[alxtw]

Gosh everything about Herbert is so true, Mario deserves a smack in the face for not utilizing Herbert. That 2019 team should’ve been in the playoffs.

He was drastically underutilized. I grew so tired of them not passing downfield. He also dealt with a weak WR room. He is showing now in the NFL what could have been in college.

And now when we have competent wrs but no herbert caliber qb…

[lukeyrid13]

Does Smiley still post here?

Also....how do you randomly bump a 7 year old thread lol

[Duck07]

Does Smiley still post here?

Also....how do you randomly bump a 7 year old thread lol

I don't think he's posted anything since that 2016 season.

Something about being curious as to how Justin ended up as the 6th pick and had so few offers coming into college yet other guys get so hyped and don't do squat.