Hypothetical Playoff Chance For Oregon?

[73duck]

I think the formula is Oregon and Georgia win out, and USC loses only to Oregon (ie, Oregon beats a one-loss USC with wins over ND and UCLA in a conference championship). Tennessee is in a tough spot if that happens; similar SOS to Oregon (they are way ahead now, 2 vs 29, but finish soft while Oregon is entering its toughest stretch) and w/o a conference championship.

[RanDux]

Oregon was 5th ranked with loses to LSU and USC. I think some people think it's still the BCS era and perfection is needed. Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State/Michigan are taking spots. The question is can Oregon pass Clemson and Oklahoma. I don't think Oregon should be afraid Clemson at all. If Oregon beats all the Pac 12 schools with the BYU and a loss to the number 1 team they are in. The Pac 12 is no joke though even though the east coast pretends it is worse than the ACC.

I agree that Oregon is better than Clemson, but an unbeaten Clemson gets in over a1 loss Oregon team. Yeah that one loss came to the number one team, but it was an ass kicking

Clemson's in the Mountain East I understand that well. Oregon has a tougher gauntlet with a loss but Oregon's not out of it. I actually think if TCU stays undefeated, they pass Clemson. However, there are some remaining games, so you never know what is going to happen.

I don't think TCU wins out. They have been less than convincing.

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[OregonFan4Life]

This morning I briefly listened to Paul Finebaum on the Dan Patrick Show while driving to work and he was asked CFP chances, why are so many people in the media stuck on the opening loss to Georgia? He even admits it wouldn’t be the same score if they played again today but it’s like that one loss is an immediate disqualification no matter what. He even went as far to say he thinks a 1 loss TCU that’s Big XII champ should get in over a 1 loss Oregon that’s the PAC-12 champ. And he for obvious reasons thinks a 1 loss Tennessee and 1 loss Michigan or Ohio St should get in over Oregon. I rarely say this but Rod Gilmore was right, if the committee has the same flawed logic as Paul Finebaum then why bother scheduling Georgia? Why not have Michigan’s pathetic SOS where you only have 1 tough game a year against Ohio St? Do these media members like Finebaum not realize they’re killing college football with these awful takes? Oregon should be rewarded, not punished, for scheduling Georgia when they could’ve scheduled Portland St. It’s sad to see the Big Ten and SEC dominate the college football world by appeasing idiots like Finebaum and scheduling pathetic OOC games.

[Duck07]

Talk to me when we're about to play UW, Utah and OSU and I'll entertain this if we've only got 1 loss.

One of the things that really hurt us in the initial CFP rankings was the clear disrespect given to UGA by placing UT at #1 and OSU at #2.

I could at least understand UT due to where Bama was put, but OSU and UM both have absolute garbage OOC so to put OSU above UGA also shows that they will overrate the B1G come seasons end since they were already giving them the benefit of the doubt despite playing nobody and with CJ Stroud looking like a mid-round QB for large stretches of games. Mark Schlabach, who is not a voter but a pundit even acknowledges the garbage OOC for UM but says he just can't get over Oregon's opening week loss (in which we moved the ball all game long).

#1 - UGA (if they lose SEC-CG put them at #2 and we're likely finishing 12-1 as the 5 seed)
#2 - Undefeated B1G Champ
#3 - Undefeated TCU (until they do lose, I'll project them at #3 because obviously undefeated TCU is in)

#4 - 1 Loss Conf Champ (Being a Conf Champ in the past has in fact meant something to the committee) vs 11-1 UT and UM/OSU

ACC: Clemson/North Carolina could each finish with 1 loss but we'll stay ranked ahead of them most likely.
Big 12: It's undefeated TCU or nothing.
P12: I'm not entertaining anyone but 12-1 Oregon for this.

UT: Hope that Pitt loses their final 3 games so that a 7 point win over a 5-7 Pitt looks like garbage. (C'mon Mario!)
UM/OSU: garbage OOC, not a Conf champ. Why reward them for playing nobody? (because they'll get a boatload of viewers...)

I think our chances really come down to 13-0 UGA and hoping the committee truly does value being a Conf Champ. The 2 realistic chances of a loss coming to potential teams above us seems like South Carolina at home vs UT next week as well as Illinois at UM. Even if TCU does drop a game, the same reasons that 11-1 UT and UM/OSU may overtake us for #4 could also see both of them do so if they win out.

[droop10]

This is why I'm stoked about the 12 team playoff. I'm tired of subjectivity being in play for who has a chance to win a title. I understand some subjectivity will still be a factor in the at large bids, but at least you can control the fact that if you win the conference you are in the playoff. Of course people will still find a way to be upset, just like the 69th team in the NCAA tournament is today. However, it's easier to get over the fact that you didn't win your conference and you had multiple losses to drop to 13th and missed the playoff, rather than have this scenario where your team improves dramatically from week 1 and just happened to lose to the number 1 team in the nation, but gets left out, because people feel a conference with 4 teams in the top 12 isn't somehow strong enough.

[Duck07]

This is why I'm stoked about the 12 team playoff. I'm tired of subjectivity being in play for who has a chance to win a title. I understand some subjectivity will still be a factor in the at large bids, but at least you can control the fact that if you win the conference you are in the playoff. Of course people will still find a way to be upset, just like the 69th team in the NCAA tournament is today. However, it's easier to get over the fact that you didn't win your conference and you had multiple losses to drop to 13th and missed the playoff, rather than have this scenario where your team improves dramatically from week 1 and just happened to lose to the number 1 team in the nation, but gets left out, because people feel a conference with 4 teams in the top 12 isn't somehow strong enough.

As a fan of CFB, I want to see teams rewarded for scheduling tough OOC schedules so that fans get great games.

While expansion will help make sure those teams that do that can still make it in, I question whether teams will try to protect their record by ignoring those games knowing they just need a Top 12 finish, SOS be damned, especially if you can get a Top 4 seed as I think that's going to play a massive role in determining the outcome.

[droop10]

This is why I'm stoked about the 12 team playoff. I'm tired of subjectivity being in play for who has a chance to win a title. I understand some subjectivity will still be a factor in the at large bids, but at least you can control the fact that if you win the conference you are in the playoff. Of course people will still find a way to be upset, just like the 69th team in the NCAA tournament is today. However, it's easier to get over the fact that you didn't win your conference and you had multiple losses to drop to 13th and missed the playoff, rather than have this scenario where your team improves dramatically from week 1 and just happened to lose to the number 1 team in the nation, but gets left out, because people feel a conference with 4 teams in the top 12 isn't somehow strong enough.

As a fan of CFB, I want to see teams rewarded for scheduling tough OOC schedules so that fans get great games.

While expansion will help make sure those teams that do that can still make it in, I question whether teams will try to protect their record by ignoring those games knowing they just need a Top 12 finish, SOS be damned, especially if you can get a Top 4 seed as I think that's going to play a massive role in determining the outcome.

I could see it both ways. Some could choose to treat OOC as a preseason of sorts, where scheduling tougher OOC games could better prepare your team for conference play. I do see what you're saying about the top 4 as well though. I would have preferred 8 teams without the bye, but I'm at least content with the concept of conference champs getting their shot, so we can remove somewhat remove the discussion of conference strength (though again, that will still exist to an extent with the at larges).

[duck023]

This is why I'm stoked about the 12 team playoff. I'm tired of subjectivity being in play for who has a chance to win a title. I understand some subjectivity will still be a factor in the at large bids, but at least you can control the fact that if you win the conference you are in the playoff. Of course people will still find a way to be upset, just like the 69th team in the NCAA tournament is today. However, it's easier to get over the fact that you didn't win your conference and you had multiple losses to drop to 13th and missed the playoff, rather than have this scenario where your team improves dramatically from week 1 and just happened to lose to the number 1 team in the nation, but gets left out, because people feel a conference with 4 teams in the top 12 isn't somehow strong enough.

As a fan of CFB, I want to see teams rewarded for scheduling tough OOC schedules so that fans get great games.

While expansion will help make sure those teams that do that can still make it in, I question whether teams will try to protect their record by ignoring those games knowing they just need a Top 12 finish, SOS be damned, especially if you can get a Top 4 seed as I think that's going to play a massive role in determining the outcome.

The thing is Oregon should get credit for taking on Georgia who is the number 1 team by far in the country. However, amongst the media and fans Oregon is actually punished for playing Georgia. I hope you are right I hope Oregon stops it with scheduling the toughest teams. I want Oregon to have a schedule more like Clemson's.

[Duck07]

I hope you are right I hope Oregon stops it with scheduling the toughest teams. I want Oregon to have a schedule more like Clemson's.

That is not at all what I want to see Oregon do.

I was pissed the game wasn't in Athens because its a great college stadium for them to have played a game in vs an NFL stadium that lacks that environment.

[DuckzRule]

This is why I'm stoked about the 12 team playoff. I'm tired of subjectivity being in play for who has a chance to win a title. I understand some subjectivity will still be a factor in the at large bids, but at least you can control the fact that if you win the conference you are in the playoff. Of course people will still find a way to be upset, just like the 69th team in the NCAA tournament is today. However, it's easier to get over the fact that you didn't win your conference and you had multiple losses to drop to 13th and missed the playoff, rather than have this scenario where your team improves dramatically from week 1 and just happened to lose to the number 1 team in the nation, but gets left out, because people feel a conference with 4 teams in the top 12 isn't somehow strong enough.

As a fan of CFB, I want to see teams rewarded for scheduling tough OOC schedules so that fans get great games.

While expansion will help make sure those teams that do that can still make it in, I question whether teams will try to protect their record by ignoring those games knowing they just need a Top 12 finish, SOS be damned, especially if you can get a Top 4 seed as I think that's going to play a massive role in determining the outcome.

The thing is Oregon should get credit for taking on Georgia who is the number 1 team by far in the country. However, amongst the media and fans Oregon is actually punished for playing Georgia. I hope you are right I hope Oregon stops it with scheduling the toughest teams. I want Oregon to have a schedule more like Clemson's.

I would love a home-and-home with Clemson but unfortunately they have their schedules filled with Notre Dame and Georgia, the only Clemson series not involving those two are against LSU and Oklahoma, but if Alabama becomes beatable during the next seasons I would also love to get them to play in Autzen Stadium.

[duck55]

I hope you are right I hope Oregon stops it with scheduling the toughest teams. I want Oregon to have a schedule more like Clemson's.

That is not at all what I want to see Oregon do.

I was pissed the game wasn't in Athens because its a great college stadium for them to have played a game in vs an NFL stadium that lacks that environment.

If they had, it wouldn't have been a 'neutral' site.

[buckmarkduck]

I wish we could start a yearly neutral site game vs the same team every year. Either LSU, Miss SCe or whatever. Would be fun to have the yearly Fowl bowl.

[lukeyrid13]

Oregon will for sure get in over 11-1 Tennessee or 11-1 Michigan

Oregon would finish: playing 4 ranked teams, including 2 in the top 10-15 & have an extra win & a 12 game winning streak & a conference championship.

Michigan would have 1 top 25 win and Tennessee finishes with no marquee matchups and no conference or division title.

[StevensTechU]

Oregon will for sure get in over 11-1 Tennessee or 11-1 Michigan

Oregon would finish: playing 4 ranked teams, including 2 in the top 10-15 & have an extra win & a 12 game winning streak & a conference championship.

Michigan would have 1 top 25 win and Tennessee finishes with no marquee matchups and no conference or division title.

I don't think there's anything wrong with your logic, but I think you're underestimating how much the playoff committee overvalues the southeastern conference and name brands.

[greenyellow]

Ducks are #6 in the latest CFP poll.

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