ncduck wrote:I disagree with the take on ott as a better platform than cable for sports. There are no instances of having a greater level of viewership on a streaming platform than cable. Hell, even the NFL disappeared on Amazon as it’s peak of 10 million viewers was only two thirds of what it averaged on FOX. Something with substantially less national relevance, like whatever this conference will end up with is going to completely disappear. Nobody will see, nobody will talk about it, and it’s going to damage recruiting for every school involved. The only possible upside is a decent license fee increase, but that won’t cure the new conference irrelevance.
If you’re curious about my credentials, I do content acquisitions for FOX Sports. When NBC dropped their national cable network NBCSN and tried pushing events onto Peacock, everyone waited out their deals and then called me begging for linear coverage. The lack of national coverage and awareness was affecting leagues at the ticket office. It was destroying their businesses.
The big leagues with power all are maxing out their linear options and then taking what’s left to streamers for an easy paycheck. Cable has at least another decade of relevance because that’s how long our deals are with the most lucrative leagues.
Based on my experience, if the conference goes streaming only, then Oregon should run for the hills.
I always appreciate when you chime in regarding the technical details.
I know long-term the sports commissioners are concerned about the lack of interest in sports from young kids but like you talked about, these are still not going to effect the line for another decade+. I've already grasped that some day a League of Legends type event will be more watched than a big football game.
Ultimately I think the Pac is dead and that we're just waiting around until a bigger conference scoops us up. I thought Kliavakoff was supposed to have come in with a plan in place that would have given USC pause about leaving rather than him getting the job and THEN trying to figure out the plan for the TV deal. I wonder how much blame you'd put on him for losing LA vs putting that on USC?
I think GK came in to late to save the PAC . The conference died because of Larry.
From what I've read, the Big-12 is interested in taking the 4 "four corner" teams, Colorado, UA, ASU & Utah. If that were to happen the conference would be toast. With the hiring of Deon Sanders it's likely that Colorado will be much improved in 2-3 years, if not sooner. That would make them much more attractive to the Big-12. On the other hand, it would make Sanders a hot coaching prospect, as well, who'd probably jump for a decent SEC or ACC job.
It's just hard to imagine that teams like Vanderbilt, Missouri, Kansas State, Kansas, etc will all be, or are already getting, more money than Oregon, Washington, Utah, Stanford, etc.
Is it possible that Apple TV will essentially just be replacing the P-12 Network? No one was watching the games on our network anyways so moving those to Apple TV would be a huge win if our marquee games were still broadcast on ESPN/FOX.
Now, if the plan is to move every game to Apple TV then we are absolutely finished as a major conference.
Talk about a horrible job by Dennis Dodd to show the top-ranked games not involving USC & UCLA. He initially forgot the 2022 UW-Oregon game but has not forgotten the 2021 Oregon-UW (2.7M), 2021 Oregon-Utah (4.8M), 2021 OSU-Oregon (1.34M), and the 2021 Oregon-Utah CCG (4.24M).
FlDuckFan wrote:I think GK came in to late to save the PAC . The conference died because of Larry.
I don't dispute the effect of Tom Hansen followed by Scott and the mismanagement prior but I do take issue with GK not having a plan in place for Day 1.
Given Oregon’s value, if they are left out of the big conferences how much blame falls on Mullens and Knight?
Zero. And I don't blame GK, either. He seemed to have a plan, but the plan didn't work out. If all good plans worked, then we'd all be billionaires and everything would always be great. If anything, blame USC and UCLA for acting in bad faith with the conference leadership.
Also, I wouldn't panic about going all-in on streaming. It's the future. Uncle Phil may not be able to influence us into the Big 10 (which may be a good thing), but he could definitely work with our eventual streaming partner to market this in ways none of us are thinking about. Nike + Apple could be a killer partnership.
I urge everyone to step away from the ledge and see how this shakes out.
StevensTechU wrote:I woke up this morning pondering the idea of merging ACC & Pac-12. It doesn't seem to make a lot of sense from a travel standpoint, but neither does the new Big Ten (UCLA and USC with Rutgers and Maryland).
East:
Clemson
Florida State
North Carolina
Virginia/Tech (probably not both)
Duke
Miami
Louisville or Syracuse (not both)
Notre Dame (non-football)
West:
Oregon
Washington
Cal
Stanford
ASU
Arizona
Utah
SDSU or Colorado (not both)
StevensTechU wrote:I woke up this morning pondering the idea of merging ACC & Pac-12. It doesn't seem to make a lot of sense from a travel standpoint, but neither does the new Big Ten (UCLA and USC with Rutgers and Maryland).
East:
Clemson
Florida State
North Carolina
Virginia/Tech (probably not both)
Duke
Miami
Louisville or Syracuse (not both)
Notre Dame (non-football)
West:
Oregon
Washington
Cal
Stanford
ASU
Arizona
Utah
SDSU or Colorado (not both)
pezsez1 wrote:
Zero. And I don't blame GK, either. He seemed to have a plan, but the plan didn't work out. If all good plans worked, then we'd all be billionaires and everything would always be great. If anything, blame USC and UCLA for acting in bad faith with the conference leadership.
Also, I wouldn't panic about going all-in on streaming. It's the future. Uncle Phil may not be able to influence us into the Big 10 (which may be a good thing), but he could definitely work with our eventual streaming partner to market this in ways none of us are thinking about. Nike + Apple could be a killer partnership.
I urge everyone to step away from the ledge and see how this shakes out.
Going streaming isn't going to give us more money and by the time that more games are watched on streaming vs TV - the SEC, B1G is still going to get the higher #s so I'm really failing to see where the actual benefit is. It simply reminds me when Larry Scott was "first to get a tv deal done" and then every other conference used that $ number as the starting point.
In the short-term, we're going to lose total viewers while likely being paid the least amount of the big conferences all at the same time that kids, especially on the west-coast, aren't playing that much football and sports in general. We will also lose out on the Network bump when ESPN and Fox spend little/no time on the Pac because they have zero incentive to and will in fact have reasons to boost the profile of other leagues as a result. Meanwhile, we'd only get that boost from our streaming partner who has no skin in the game with the major bowls/playoffs meaning there is no boost.
We need to get away from this Conference soon because its going to hurt our brand.
It drives me crazy that (my perspective) the most likely outcome of this is that Oregon joins the Big Ten at a discount, whereby instead of getting a full piece of the pie, a portion is taken off the top to appease the other schools who have additional travel or other hesitations. In no world should Minnesota get $75MM per year and Oregon gets $50MM per year when the latter is obviously drawing all the eyeballs.
The problem for the conference was really in the timing of USC and UCLA leaving. The conference had to come up with an immediate solution to the decreased value proposition and they had to do it fast. The Big12 adding schools and came to terms quickly with FOX/ESPN which saved them and did in the P12(?).
Really, the only way the conference could have avoided this would have been to hire an executive from FOX/ESPN who has the vision to see there are limits to how much networks will spend on mid-tier content and it’s often a first come first served scenario. That type of person would have found a way to replace the LA schools and would have taken a little bit of a haircut to live on the platforms where the sport is relevant. GK’s only failure is not really understanding the TV landscape and how quickly deals can dry up. I can’t blame him, but I sure can blame the schools who hired someone who wouldn’t be able to navigate the current scenario. Once Texas and OU bolted for the SEC, the P12 should have gamed out scenarios where the schools in the most valuable markets get poached and how to respond. Hell, why not preemptively scoop up schools from the B12 immediately after it was raided.
It’s all coming to a head and we should have an announcement in the next couple of weeks. Assuming the conference ends up exclusively on a streamer, I think Oregon joining the B1G at a discounted rate for the current rights deal is still the best deal. Oregon gets huge exposure, an increase in TV money, albeit lower than some other schools, and continued relevance in the sport. Then Oregon gets a nice pay raise in subsequent rights deals.
ncduck wrote:The problem for the conference was really in the timing of USC and UCLA leaving. The conference had to come up with an immediate solution to the decreased value proposition and they had to do it fast. The Big12 adding schools and came to terms quickly with FOX/ESPN which saved them and did in the P12(?).
Really, the only way the conference could have avoided this would have been to hire an executive from FOX/ESPN who has the vision to see there are limits to how much networks will spend on mid-tier content and it’s often a first come first served scenario. That type of person would have found a way to replace the LA schools and would have taken a little bit of a haircut to live on the platforms where the sport is relevant. GK’s only failure is not really understanding the TV landscape and how quickly deals can dry up. I can’t blame him, but I sure can blame the schools who hired someone who wouldn’t be able to navigate the current scenario. Once Texas and OU bolted for the SEC, the P12 should have gamed out scenarios where the schools in the most valuable markets get poached and how to respond. Hell, why not preemptively scoop up schools from the B12 immediately after it was raided.
It’s all coming to a head and we should have an announcement in the next couple of weeks. Assuming the conference ends up exclusively on a streamer, I think Oregon joining the B1G at a discounted rate for the current rights deal is still the best deal. Oregon gets huge exposure, an increase in TV money, albeit lower than some other schools, and continued relevance in the sport. Then Oregon gets a nice pay raise in subsequent rights deals.
How long would Oregon have to take a pay cut to be in the B1G?
OregonFan4Life wrote:
How long would Oregon have to take a pay cut to be in the B1G?
Probably for the extent of the current TV deal, which is until something like 2031. At that point, Oregon's AD/President have as much a say as the rest of the conference's membership.
I think it would be better for Oregon's brand to go all-in on streaming than to be L1ttle Brother in the B1G. Our brand as an innovative program dies if we become Minnesota's ***tch.
Same goes for the rest of the Pac-12 schools. It's risky, but our brand isn't about jumping ship and following at any cost. It's about setting the tone, doing the unexpected, and winning.
