Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

[Phalanx]

The longer Cronin waits to do the trade, the less value a team will get from Lillard's extreme contract. The first two years are still in the 46-48 million range, and then the last two jump to $59 million and $63 million. So if they wait, Lillard is burning through one of the years when a contender might be able to fit him in with the contracts of other good players. If Cronin waits too long, Lillard will simply be untradeable and the Blazers will have to eat his contract and put off the rebuild by that many more years.

No way. Cronin needs to stand his ground in Florida.

I saw what you did there.

[bellsduck]

After the initial irrational exuberance, doubt is starting to creep in that Lillard would make enough of a difference in Miami to justify all the trade capital. Pretty fair piece in the Palm Beach Post yesterday:

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/spo ... 401968007/

“He makes a ton of money in the last two years of his contract and by then his effectiveness will be less,’’ the Western scout said. “I think Miami is concerned about that. I don’t know if Miami is the favorite any more but we’ll see.’’

“They run the risk of making a big change but not knowing the impact positively or negatively,’’ an Eastern Conference personnel director said. “Lillard is a small guard (6-foot) who has struggled to advance in the playoffs against bigger guards.’’

I take this as the media arm of the Heat just trying to negotiate a lower asking price.

[pezsez1]

Fascinating trade "standoff" between the Heat and Blazers. The Heat make a crappy offer and the Blazers are being completely nonresponsive about it. I honestly can't recall a trade standoff quite like this where the two sides are so far apart and the team with the disgruntled superstar has so little actual incentive to get a deal done.

I was convinced that Dame to Miami was a sure thing but now I'm not so certain.

[Duck07]

Fascinating trade "standoff" between the Heat and Blazers. The Heat make a crappy offer and the Blazers are being completely nonresponsive about it. I honestly can't recall a trade standoff quite like this where the two sides are so far apart and the team with the disgruntled superstar has so little actual incentive to get a deal done.

I was convinced that Dame to Miami was a sure thing but now I'm not so certain.

Miami is definitely trying to create that "fire-sale" type atmosphere because now is the time to build the rest of your roster out and teams that look like they've got potential are able to secure those kind of veteran signings. Riley can't do that right now.

Honestly for both Scoot and Sharpe, it's probably best if they backup Lillard/Simons/Thybulle for a few months while they each acclimate to one another and also let the season develop for the "contenders" list to change.

One person who hasn't been named in the package that I would absolutely consider: Erik Spoelstra. Pat Riley certainly knows about a Coach being traded when he quit on the Knicks as HC and the Heat were forced to give up a #1 pick to settle a tampering charge.

If you really want to give Scoot and Sharpe their best chance, get them a Championship caliber HC who used to live here!

[bellsduck]

Fascinating trade "standoff" between the Heat and Blazers. The Heat make a crappy offer and the Blazers are being completely nonresponsive about it. I honestly can't recall a trade standoff quite like this where the two sides are so far apart and the team with the disgruntled superstar has so little actual incentive to get a deal done.

I was convinced that Dame to Miami was a sure thing but now I'm not so certain.

Again, Heat trying to use the media to make themselves look better to fans. If they really want Dame they're the team that should be trying to find that 3rd team that wants Herro for picks.

[Phalanx]

Yeah, I love these shills for Miami who say the Blazers should accept Herro because he is a tradeable asset. What? How in the world is that the Blazers' responsibility to try to find value for Herro in the market when Miami clearly can't? Isn't it bad enough that Lillard signed a contract and then the Blazers built the team around him for years and now he no longer wants to honor that contract, and now he is trying to shut the Blazers out of the market? This whole thing stinks, but then asking to take a bad contract for a player Portland doesn't even want just takes the cake. I also love how the Heat are acting like the wounded party because the Blazers won't agree to take their crap off their hands instead of Bam, the player they know Portland would want. This isn't a trade offer, it's an attempted fleecing.

[greenyellow]

I find it funny how the Heat, their media lackies, and fans have somehow found a way to make themselves the victims in the situation.

[squintsdd]

I find it funny how the Heat, their media lackies, and fans have somehow found a way to make themselves the victims in the situation.

It's not hard with the way the media is nowadays. All you have to do is be the first one to say "they're screwing us over". The court of public opinion will almost always believe the first words spoken in a subject

[Phalanx]

This whole thing is such a railroad job. Lillard and his agent go to the Heat and tell them they are going to demand the Blazers trade him to Miami, so the Heat start madly shedding salary - letting Gabe Vincent go after giving him a lowball offer and then trading Max Strus away for a second-round pick. Then, as soon as they get those deals done (literally the next morning), Lillard's camp publicly announces the trade demand, thereby removing much of his trade value, then he states he won't play for anyone but Miami, which basically torpedoed the Blazers ability to get anything like market value. And now Cronin is the bad guy because he isn't just bending over? Remember that report several days before Lillard's public trade request saying that the Heat were patiently waiting for Lillard?

https://heatnation.com/rumors/report-mi ... n-lillard/

Why the Heat specifically? What team just coming out of the NBA finals puts roster decisions on hold at the busiest time of the year in the off chance that a player on another team might ask for a trade?

If Lillard is allowed to pull this off, it will change the NBA in an existential way. Players will be able to decide which teams win and which teams lose, all semblance of competition from small-market teams will be out the window. I'm actually really surprised the league hasn't stepped in here yet. In a way, Cronin is a test case and how he responds here will set a precedent for all small-market teams going forward.

[pezsez1]

I'm actually really surprised the league hasn't stepped in here yet. In a way, Cronin is a test case and how he responds here will set a precedent for all small-market teams going forward.

Same. This whole thing is bizarre and seems deserving of an investigation.

I also think Dame and his agent misjudged the situation. Cronin/Jody could quite possibly sit on him indefinitely and I don't think he was counting on that.

[Phalanx]

Reports that the current offer might be Jovic, Jaquez, and 3 firsts. Probably include Lowry for salary. Think I'd just take that deal and move on, unless they just really like Martin, then maybe try to get him thrown in. The salary space going into 2024-25 would really help in the rebuilding. Trying to be guarded in my words, since the Blazers have been awful in free agency up to now. There is potential in freeing up cap space though.

[Duck07]

Reports that the current offer might be Jovic, Jaquez, and 3 firsts. Probably include Lowry for salary. Think I'd just take that deal and move on, unless they just really like Martin, then maybe try to get him thrown in. The salary space going into 2024-25 would really help in the rebuilding. Trying to be guarded in my words, since the Blazers have been awful in free agency up to now. There is potential in freeing up cap space though.

I think with Miami it also comes down to how much you value Jovic's potential because he's the one who could offer you something NOW, and not 6 years from now. He's a mobile 4 who can attack in transition and hit the 3 in limited minutes. Doesn't seem to have much of a back to the basket game and I'm unsure of his defensive chops right now to say whether he's got the chance to be the long-term PF. He certainly has an offensive game that Walker doesn't at the 4 so they might be a good pairing too.

Messing around with the Trade Machine, you can send Dame+Nurk to Miami and send Herro to Brooklyn while sending Simmons, Lowry and Jovic to the Blazers as well as what should be 3 1sts from Miami and I'd think at least 2-3 from Brooklyn for getting away from Simmons deal and giving them a competent PG (which they do need). At that point, I think you have a winning deal for Portland in that you will pay the Tax this year with Simmons+Lowry unless they trade Grant but you should have a lot more space next year and beyond and a glut of picks to work with.

Who knows what we'd be doing at Center but that would also help the team from being too competitive this year as well so they could find that Center in the lottery and then IIRC, next year's 1st would automatically transfer to Chicago so its best to suck this year and be competitive the following year.

[Boom]

I'm actually really surprised the league hasn't stepped in here yet. In a way, Cronin is a test case and how he responds here will set a precedent for all small-market teams going forward.

Same. This whole thing is bizarre and seems deserving of an investigation.

I also think Dame and his agent misjudged the situation. Cronin/Jody could quite possibly sit on him indefinitely and I don't think he was counting on that.

There's multiple teams that could realistically make a substantially better offer than the Heat. Dame's under contract for 4 years. Cronin should wait for as long as it takes for Dame to open up the market.

[Phalanx]

I see a lot of posts saying Cronin should hold out, and it just seems like they don't understand the money side of this. Lillard is overpaid now, but he is about to be wildly overpaid. The biggest problem with Blazer management when they get into these situations is that their contracts are terrible. Fans wanted all this value in trades for McCollum, or Powell, or Nurk, or Simons, and they seem blind to the fact that all of those contracts originated by the Blazers were/are liabilities that will always diminish trade value as well as the number of teams willing to trade at all. A team might be willing to swallow Lillard for this year and maybe next, but those last two years make him almost untradeable, and it Cronin waits that long, the only trade that will be there is for other bad contracts. He needs to do a deal now, and then he needs to get some religion about future contracts. Otherwise, the Blazers will never win.

[pezsez1]

I think the Blazers could afford to sit on Lillard for one season before shifting to "must trade" mode. They'd still find trade partners a year from now (even if it's just Miami). The offer might be worse, but depending on whatever the offer is right now then "worse" might be a pointless word... like, I'll give you either a full turd now or half a turd later... is one offer really more useful than the other?

I've decided to put my faith in Mike Schmitz. If there's significant promise in Miami's younger players or its picks, then Portland will accept the apparent turd and move on. But if he grades these guys out to just be eventual journeymen or second stringers, then I think Cronin will hold out to see what happens. Contenders always get desperate at midseason, and Dame (whether you think he's all-time or not) is undeniably a player who'd move the needle for just about any squad.

I also don't think Dame wants to miss an entire season and his request will broaden as time passes. I don't want to argue over whether he is still in his prime, but we can agree on this -- he just came off one of his best seasons ever and he undoubtably BELIEVES he is still in his prime. I think it would kill him to miss this season and miss the playoffs AGAIN. I really believe he'll blink. I also think Miami will blink when faced with the prospect of potentially blowing another shot at a title, but that's another topic.

If either Dame or Miami blinks -- which I see as highly likely -- then the upside there could be HUGE. I want Mike Schmitz to have his pick of the litter and I trust him to get it right. I think the potential upside of getting it right outweighs getting even less for him via a fire sale in one year.