Ducks remain #6 in 2nd CFP Poll

[SuperDuck]

With the CFP I've heard its less about the "eyes" per se and more about how the metrics, SP, etc all rank Oregon as Top 5 at everything more or less and only Michigan is like that. Thus we're at 5 because had we beaten UW, we might be #1 in their eyes.

I'm hoping that conference championships matter a lot, because a one-loss Michigan or one-loss Georgia could be in the mix. It seems only fair; it is like a true playoff started a week or two early.

As I have said all along, Oregon needs to continue hammering opponents, or they might need a Texas/Alabama/FSU loss; winning out may not be enough.

It's going to depend on several factors.

#1. If Georgia beats Alabama they're clearly the #1 seed. However, if Georgia loses, they'll likely still be in because one loss to highly ranked Alabama team probably wouldn't be enough to offset them being a two time defending champ who just had a 28 game winning streak broken.

#2. An Alabama win over Georgia would almost guarantee them a playoff spot.

#3. Florida State has a weak schedule and will still have to play a 9-1 Louisville team in the ACC championship. That isn't a guaranteed win.

#4. UW should be in if they win out no matter what happens because they already have quality wins over UO, Utah and Arizona and if they win out that wold also include a second win over UO, as well as a win over #11 OSU on the road.

#5. The Ohio State vs Michigan loser won't likely get in unless UW or FSU loses.

#6. The Ducks need to win out. That would give them quality wins over Utah, UW and OSU. If Georgia beats Alabama I think the Ducks could grab the #4 spot, along with UG, Ohio State vs Michigan winner and FSU.

#7. If Alabama beats Georgia and Texas wins out, it's likely that both of them would jump over Oregon. But do you put a one loss Texas team that would have a win over Alabama ahead of Georgia who would have lost to them?

#8. Oregon State could step up and wreck both UO and UWs playoff hopes by beating both of them in the next two weeks. I don't think they can beat Oregon this year, but UWs run defense may struggle trying to defend the OSU running game. I believe OSU is currently a 2.5 point favorite.

There are so many scenario's remaining. A 12 team playoff this year would resolve this potential chaos but, unfortunately, that will have to wait one more year.

Thoughts?

[SuperDuck]

So the state of Oregon has both the top 1-loss and top 2-loss teams, respectively, in the CFP rankings right now.

I agree. All are undefeated but UW has a better win.

Oregon is fortunate that Texas didn't look better this weekend; otherwise, the CFP committee might have bumped them over the Ducks.

They play tech to finish off the season. A common opponent might make the difference for some of the decision makers.

I think Tyler Shough is back now for TT. He was out several games with an injury, so they're better than their 5-5 record indicates.

Also, Texas just lost their #1 RB for the season. That may end up hurting them. The guy behind him is good, but the guy they lost (Brooks) was more of a breakaway threat.

I'll be keeping an eye on that game for sure.

I could be wrong, but pretty sure Shough is out for the regular season. A quick search on Google didn't spawn any articles that he has gotten back ahead of schedule. He definitely hasn't played any games since 9/23. It's ridiculous that FSU is being propped up by teams they played that were thought to be good, and have clearly turned out to be fraudulent. Michigan hasn't played anyone. Penn St. is frustrating in that they are good enough to beat all the scrubs in the B1G, but they are not actually a top 15 team, but get the ranking by beating up on lesser teams. However, they always prop up Ohio St. and Michigan's SOS, despite never being competitive against top teams. It is ludicrous that UW is ranked 5th, when the PAC is clearly the deepest conference in the NCAA.

You're right. He is out for the season. I assumed he was okay because the injury status on him had been removed in my fantasy football league.

[pezsez1]

You're all overthinking this.

If Alabama beats Georgia, then Bama is in and Georgia is out. There are too many good teams this year for two teams from the same conference to be in.

Same goes for tOSU and Michigan.

Also, Alabama winning doesn't mean Texas is in over us. This committee values margin of victory and eye-test dominance. Oregon and Michigan are the most dominant teams in the sport right now.

Oregon needs to win big this Saturday and then win out. Simple as that. The rest doesn't matter.

[StevensTechU]

You're all overthinking this.

If Alabama beats Georgia, then Bama is in and Georgia is out. There are too many good teams this year for two teams from the same conference to be in.

Same goes for tOSU and Michigan.

Also, Alabama winning doesn't mean Texas is in over us. This committee values margin of victory and eye-test dominance. Oregon and Michigan are the most dominant teams in the sport right now.

Oregon needs to win big this Saturday and then win out. Simple as that. The rest doesn't matter.

There are more than 4+ teams that are deserving based on different sets of logic. I don't remember the last time I saw Pac-12 schools get the benefit of the doubt in football or MBB, so I don't see how anyone can definitively say anything.

[pezsez1]

I don't remember the last time I saw Pac-12 schools get the benefit of the doubt in football or MBB

Oregon's big problem in recent years has been losing games it should have won. Same goes for the rest of the Pac-12. The door has always been open, but we've beaten each other up too much to walk through it.

That could still happen this season if OSU goes on the warpath -- they'd have to beat UW and Oregon, and then UW would have to lose in the CCG -- but I don't see all of that happening. Either Oregon or UW with one loss gets in this year. A two-loss Pac-12 team wouldn't deserve it.

In previous years when there are two same-conference playoff teams it's been understandable. This year, not so much. There's far too much top-end parity.

[OregonFan4Life]

For me the only team I worry about is Texas. There is no way the committee favors a 1 loss team that did not win their conference over a 1 loss team that won their power 5 conference, the committee has already shown they value conference championship. The biggest problem with the PAC-12 isn’t reputation but the champs somewhere along the season lose games they shouldn’t because the PAC-12 has always canibalized itself with the help of PAC-12 officials. The last time we had a PAC-12 champ that had only 1 loss or went undefeated was 2016 when the Huskies made it with 1 loss, since then every PAC-12 team has at least 2 losses.

Since 2017 the Pac-12 has been really bad in non-conference games, obviously this year it’s turned around a lot but we have to acknowledge how bad the pac-12 was in non-conference games. Here are non-conference losses the conference champion has had since 2017

2017: USC - loss to Notre Dame
2018: Washington - loss to Auburn that finished in the bottom half of the SEC
2019: Oregon - loss to Auburn that finished in the middle of the SEC
2020: Oregon - Covid year
2021: Utah - losses to BYU and San Diego St
2022: Utah - loss to Florida that finished in the bottom half of the SEC

Since 2018 the PAC-12 hasn’t had a team that deserves to be in the playoffs and that changed now, last year a healthy USC deserved it and this year good chance either Washington or Oregon gets in cause they legit deserve it. The only reason a PAC-12 champion does not get in is cause there are four other P5 champions with 1 or no losses which is sadly possible.

[whosyourwally]

If UW beats OSU, they have to jump FSU. Oregon would then have a top 15 OSU and a top 4 UW left. If UW loses to OSU, and assuming Oregon can stay ahead of Texas, Oregon would have two games left against top ten teams. Texas has games against a 6-4 ISU, 5-5 TT, and likely a 7-3 OK State. None of those games should move the needle. In either scenario, if Oregon can win out, I don’t see a scenario where Texas jumps Oregon.


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[Tray Dub]

If UW beats OSU, they have to jump FSU. Oregon would then have a top 15 OSU and a top 4 UW left. If UW loses to OSU, and assuming Oregon can stay ahead of Texas, Oregon would have two games left against top ten teams. Texas has games against a 6-4 ISU, 5-5 TT, and likely a 7-3 OK State. None of those games should move the needle. In either scenario, if Oregon can win out, I don’t see a scenario where Texas jumps Oregon.


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I agree. There's just no weekend where Texas jumping Oregon wouldn't be an outrage given who we'll each be playing each weekend. I think the big question for the sport is whether a win-out Bama jumps Texas after beating Georgia. That'd be a classic dilemma of head-to-head versus strength-of-schedule. But while I'm not so gung-ho as some about this being open-and-shut, just looking at how each weekend shapes up, I believe we are in with three more Ws.

[pezsez1]

think the big question for the sport is whether a win-out Bama jumps Texas after beating Georgia. That'd be a classic dilemma of head-to-head versus strength-of-schedule.

Assuming there are no huge surprises, this is the only real question the committee needs to figure out. And man, what a dilemma. I do think Alabama is the better team and that the SEC is better than the Big-12, but two one-loss champs with one having a head-to-head road win? This might be the year the SEC is out of the playoff.

But with Oregon's remaining schedule in arguably the nation's toughest conference there's simply no way the Ducks are out if they win. I think there's a far greater chance of undefeated FSU being left out in order to make room for Alabama and Texas.

[Duck07]

UGA isn't losing to Bama with how they've been playing. Maybe 3-4 weeks ago you could say that but they look good.

[StevensTechU]

UGA isn't losing to Bama with how they've been playing. Maybe 3-4 weeks ago you could say that but they look good.

The Ladd McConkey effect is wild.

[duckpoint]

Washington should already be in the top 4 and I think any fair measure would place them no lower than #2. Best top to bottom conference and the best win!

Ranking UW #5 is setting up for some bad politics!

The poodles have played all top 25 ranked teams since the first playoff ranking and with a win tomorrow they should leap frog FSU at minimum and more appropriately jump to #2.

#1 Georgia vs #18 (7-3) Tennessee
#2 OSU vs NR (5-5) Minnesota
#3 Michigan vs NR (6-4) Maryland
#4 FSU vs FCS (Cupcake!) North Alabama
#5 UW vs #11 (8-2) Oregon State
#6 UO vs NR (3-7) ASU
#7 Texas vs NR (6-4) Iowa State
#8 Alabama vs FCS (Cupcake!) Chattanooga

Tomorrows Games Ranked by Difficulty;

#5 UW vs #11 (8-2) Oregon State
#1 Georgia vs #18 (7-3) Tennessee
#7 Texas vs NR (6-4) Iowa State
#3 Michigan vs NR (6-4) Maryland
#2 OSU vs NR (5-5) Minnesota
#6 UO vs NR (3-7) ASU
#8 Alabama vs FCS (Cupcake!) Chattanooga
#4 FSU vs FCS (Cupcake!) North Alabama

If UW wins and doesn't move up, the bias becomes more obvious and the fix is in...

[pezsez1]

If UW wins and doesn't move up, the bias becomes more obvious and the fix is in...

I think the committee has basically held the rankings the way they are so that the spots will go to the SEC, B1G, ACC and PAC. No need really to move the top six teams around when their desired end result will be achieved. Maybe the "fix" is that they really want the ratings of an Oregon rematch vs Georgia to make the first round more interesting.

[duckpoint]

If UW wins and doesn't move up, the bias becomes more obvious and the fix is in...

I think the committee has basically held the rankings the way they are so that the spots will go to the SEC, B1G, ACC and PAC. No need really to move the top six teams around when their desired end result will be achieved. Maybe the "fix" is that they really want the ratings of an Oregon rematch vs Georgia to make the first round more interesting.

So is having FSU @ #4 since the first ranking the committees way of showing some faux love to the ACC? Just theater?

FSUs best wins (LSU & Clemson) are roughly equivalent to Arizona & UCLA in the PAC. Seems like there is some extra credit given there based on preseason rankings that is not getting applied equally.

[OregonFan4Life]

The committee I believe has kept the top 6 status quo and is waiting to see how things finish out. It amazes me to see people in the media (mainly idiots like McElroy) got all riled up at the rankings, it usually sorts itself out and the committee doesn’t have to create drama, obviously it may be different this year. In 2014 the committee after conference championships jumped a 1 loss Oregon over undefeated FSU. If Huskies and FSU both win out I’d imagine Washington would jump FSU for the 4th spot, in the end thought it doesn’t matter for the Huskies, they control their own destiny, win out and they’re in.