First Look at the 12 Team Playoff Field

[KrmaMakr]

It's the Question of the Year:

Will a 3 loss SEC team this December, be equivalent to a 2 loss BigTen team?

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Currently ranked in the top 25:

* 9 SEC teams (4 in the top10)
* 6 BigTen teams (4 in the top10)
* 5 Big12 teams
* 4 ACC teams

While the BigTen does not have the current depth of the SEC, it does match them in the top10...

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What does 'the 5th-10th best SEC team' being that much better than 'the 5th-10th best BigTen team' mean?
(Specifically, in terms of the 12 team playoff?)

Will SEC teams playing against 5-6 in-conference powerhouses... help or hurt them?
(Relative to their BigTen counterparts that are only facing 3-4 real in-conference teams)

Does the SEC, as a conference, playing a tougher non-Conference schedule help/hurt them?

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The SEC has 20 games against the top tier out of Conference teams:

8/31: Texas A&M(SEC) vs #7 Notre Dame
8/31: Georgia(SEC) @ #14 Clemson(ACC)
8/31: Florida(SEC) @ #19 Miami(ACC)
8/31: Vanderbilt(SEC) vs Virginia Tech(ACC)
9/01: LSU(SEC) vs #23 USC(BigTen)

9/7: Texas(SEC) @ #7 Michigan(BigTen)
9/7: Arkansas(SEC) @ #17 Oklahoma St(Big12)
9/7: Tennessee(SEC) vs #24 NC State(ACC)
9/7: Mississippi St(SEC) @ Arizona St(Big12)
9/7: Oklahoma(SEC) @ Houston(Big12)
9/7: Auburn(SEC) @ Cal(ACC)

9/14: Alabama(SEC) @ Wisconsin(BigTen)
9/14: Missouri(SEC) vs Boston College(ACC)
9/14: Ole Miss(SEC) @ Wake Forest(ACC)
9/21: LSU(SEC) vs UCLA(BigTen)
10/5: Florida(SEC) vs UCF(Big12)

11/29: Georgia(SEC) vs Georgia Tech(ACC)
11/30: Florida(SEC) @ #10 Florida St(ACC)
11/30: South Carolina(SEC) @ #14 Clemson(ACC)
11/30: Kentucky(SEC) @ Louisville(ACC)

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The BigTen has 15 games against the top tier out of Conference teams:

8/29: Minnesota(BigTen) vs North Carolina(ACC)
8/31: Penn St(BigTen) @ West Virginia(Big12)
9/01: USC(BigTen) vs #13 LSU(SEC)

9/6: Northwestern(BigTen) vs Duke(ACC)
9/7: Michigan(BigTen) vs #4 Texas(SEC)
9/7: Illinois(BigTen) vs #22 Kansas(Big12)
9/7: Iowa(BigTen) vs Iowa St(Big12)
9/7: Nebraska(BigTen) vs Colorado(Big12)

9/14: Maryland(BigTen) @ Virginia(ACC)
9/14: Purdue(BigTen) vs #7 Notre Dame
9/14: Wisconsin(BigTen) vs #5 Alabama(SEC)

9/21: UCLA(BigTen) @ LSU(SEC)
9/21: Michigan St(BigTen) @ Boston College(ACC)
9/21: Rutgers(BigTen) @ Virginia Tech(ACC)

11/30: USC(BigTen) vs #7 Notre Dame

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The fact that Oregon, Ohio St, and Washington all have 0 non-Conference games against real other tier1 Conference teams is... it does seem that the SEC is more willing to take on any and all challengers.

In this new world, where 1 or 2 losses are expected for every SEC/BigTen team...

Does 1 loss, but 4 real wins .... mean more than 2 loses, but 6 real wins... ?

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Without seeing any games played, I'd set the 2025 framework to be:

* 4 SEC teams
* 3 BigTen teams
* 2 Big12 teams
* 2 ACC teams
* 1 Group of 5 team

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KrmaMakr' 2025 College Football Playoff Prediction:

Georgia(SEC)
LSU(SEC)
Missouri(SEC)
Tennessee(SEC)

Oregon(BigTen)
Ohio St(BigTen)
Penn St(BigTen)

Miami(ACC)
Florida St(ACC)

Arizona(Big12)
Utah(Big12)

Tulane (Group of 5)

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My arguments against certain teams:

Alabama/Clemson - No Saban, tough schedule, I can dream

Notre Dame/Ole Miss - Stupid hard schedule, 3-4 losses?

Michigan - Part of the Harbaugh experience is the 1st year after

Texas/Oklahoma - Welcome to a real conference... losing sucks

Kansas/Kansas St - Both really good teams, and could easily be in, instead of Utah or Arizona...

NC State - If Cam Ward/DJ don't live up to my dream, they are my replacement team

USC/Washington/Wisconsin - I've insulted these teams this whole post... are they better than I thinK?

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My picks for the Group of 5 Conferences:

Fresno St - Mountain West
Tulane - American Athletic
Liberty - Conference USA
Miami(OH) - Mid American
Appalachian St - Sun Belt

I have Oregon St going to the Smurf Turf, the day after Thanksgiving, beating Boise St, and denying them the automatic spot for the Group of 5... and delivering Fresno St the MW Conference.

Besides Boise St, the other obvious Group of 5 choice is Liberty(Conference USA).

However, Tulane has a RB that I think is going to be special; I'm imagining I roster Malik Hughes on my NFL Fantasy team next season.

Plus, I'm still hopeful Ty Thompson wins out as starting QB for Tulane.

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The schedules for Arizona and Utah could not be more ideal... but still have to win the games

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Cam Ward(Washington St) and DJ UiagaleleiJ(Oregon St) are going make waves this coming season.

Both have NFL talent, but are currently not being really looked at...

With magical seasons... and the schedules are quite manageable... they could both play themselves into real NFL money...

I have both of them taking the 2 ACC spots... with NC State waiting in the shadows.

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I'd like to relook at the 12 team framework on 9/16, after most of these out of Conference games will have been played.

But, in the meantime, I currently see the BigTen with 3 teams making the Playoffs this year..

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Where do you guys currently stand?
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[UOducksTK1]

Weird first post... Feels spammy, but it's a reasonable question lol.

[KrmaMakr]

I was trying to find an Oregon Duck community.

The sbnation Addicted to Quack doesn't have any Duck engagement.

It appeared this was a forum I could post my Duck related thoughts, where there were fellow enthusiasts...

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I didn't see anyone looking at what the requirements will probably be.

It seems to me that the Ducks can easily lose 1 game and still be one of the 3 BigTen spots. A second loss is where it would seem to start to be questionable...

If the Ducks do sadly lose 2 games, and only have the 3-4 'quality' BigTen wins... is that enough to overcome a 3 loss SEC team?

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I could have put my 2025 Predictions somewhere else, but my mind was rolling..

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To the question posed: How do you think the BigTen is represented in the inaugural 12 team playoffs?

[Duck07]

Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State are the 3 I think that make it.

Michigan, USC and Iowa would be my next 3 teams right now.

[Merganzer]

Yeah, right now Oregon & Ohio State should be battling for one of the 1st round byes. USC starts their season @ LSU in a big non-conference game and end their season hosting Notre Dame, so a nice SoS for the Trojans

[greenyellow]

I think Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State make it with either Iowa or Michigan getting the 4th spot.

[KrmaMakr]

I think Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State make it with either Iowa or Michigan getting the 4th spot.

If you have the BigTen getting 4 playoff spots, (from the listed framework) who loses a playoff spot?

Does the ACC or Big12 only get 1 playoff spot? or are you thinking the BigTen would get more spots than the SEC?

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Yeah, right now Oregon & Ohio State should be battling for one of the 1st round byes. USC starts their season @ LSU in a big non-conference game and end their season hosting Notre Dame, so a nice SoS for the Trojans

Yah, my whole post is based on my lack of respect for that second tier: USC, Wisconsin, and Washington... and my perceived lack of respect shown to them in the polls...

I agree USC' SoS will be off the charts...

I just have USC losing 3(or more) games this year... and to me, 3 losses in the BigTen eliminates you from playoff contention...

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However, USC non-Conf schedule looks much more like an SEC non-Conf schedule this year, than other BigTen non-Conf schedules.

So, perhaps USC should be getting my 3 loss SEC equivalency that I'm espousing here,..

[Duck07]

Welcome to the board Karma, as I recall the first iteration of this forum/website was when the Oregonlive.com forums went away in like 2008 so there is a decent amount of us who've been here since the start and most new posters don't come out of the gate quite like that.

Are you a Duck fan first or are you a fan of a B1G school who has always like the ducks from afar?

I think when it comes to shaking down the teams that will finish in that 9-12 range that I want to see the games first to really know how some of these new transfer QBs look at so many of these schools. With USC I kind of already expect Riley to have worked his magic with another Heisman caliber young QB for his system in Moss so if their defense isn't dog poop this year they could be one those teams like Michigan where their losses won't look bad when making their argument at the end of the season.

[KrmaMakr]

Welcome to the board Karma, as I recall the first iteration of this forum/website was when the Oregonlive.com forums went away in like 2008 so there is a decent amount of us who've been here since the start and most new posters don't come out of the gate quite like that.

Are you a Duck fan first or are you a fan of a B1G school who has always like the ducks from afar?

I think when it comes to shaking down the teams that will finish in that 9-12 range that I want to see the games first to really know how some of these new transfer QBs look at so many of these schools. With USC I kind of already expect Riley to have worked his magic with another Heisman caliber young QB for his system in Moss so if their defense isn't dog poop this year they could be one those teams like Michigan where their losses won't look bad when making their argument at the end of the season.

I am not a Duck fan first. Or even really a B1G fan first.
I've lived here in the Portland area most of my life.

My sister and brother-in-law are both Oregon grads/season ticket holders...

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I traditionally like to write about Blazers, ex.: https://www.blazersedge.com/2013/12/6/5 ... -mavericks

And go through phases where I throw down all my various thoughts on things that interest me:
Blazers, Ducks, Timbers, 49ers, Beavers, Fantasy Football, Football Gambling, etc..
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But this year is special.

This is the Ducks year... something fun in the air.

In my dream, the Ducks make the 12 team Playoff field (with 1 losss)...

Will the Ducks win it all? I don't know.... but the Ducks will have a real shot.

I hope to share this journey these next 4 months, here with you guys...

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It seems to me that the Ducks are guaranteed a playoff spot with 1 loss.

But, it doesn't seem 100%, if there is more losses:

Is a 2 loss Oregon school not in the Conf Champ game (say 3rd best team in the BigTen) equivalent/or better than a 3 loss SEC school/with more quality wins than Oregon (say 4th/5th best team in the SEC)..

So, a quick look at what the field might look like was in order...

Which set my thoughts on the framework of 12 playoff teams, and my basic thoughts on all the 'good' teams...

[Merganzer]

I just have USC losing 3(or more) games this year... and to me, 3 losses in the BigTen eliminates you from playoff contention...

The Trojans will have a strong SoS, but their BIG schedule is very favorable. No Oregon or Ohio State, @ Michigan, but Wisconsin &Penn. St. @ home. I've heard that their defense will be improved, which does not mean that it will be good, and that Miller Moss is going to follow the line of Riley QB's. Now this would something as Murray, Mayfield and Williams won Heisman's.

[UOducksTK1]

I saw Kirk/Des pick Oregon to win the Natty on game day.

Also interesting cuz Kirk had Ohio State winning the conference but Oregon winning it all.