2021 recruiting - interesting stat

[dd10snoop28]

https://247sports.com/college/oregon/se ... l/commits/

I was revisiting the 2021 recruiting class and noticed something wild. The numbers below show how many of the 2021 commits stayed with the ducks (i.e. didn't transfer):

3 stars and below: 0 out of 7
4 stars: 4 out of 16
5 stars: 0 out of 1


TOTAL: only 4 out of 24 of the commits in the 2021 recruiting class stayed with the ducks.

Crazy!

[dd10snoop28]

The 4 players that stayed:
-Bassa
-Ferguson
-Jackson-Powers
-Troy Franklin


All NFL players

[UOducksTK1]

That was Dan Lanning's first class after taking over for Mario when he left 1.5 months before signing day.

[greenyellow]

That was Dan Lanning's first class after taking over for Mario when he left 1.5 months before signing day.

This was the COVID class that was Mario's final full class that he and his staff coached. Shows how bad scouting was during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

[StevensTechU]

Anybody recall the story of Josh Simmons? Committed to the ducks (even though I can't seem to remember that), decommitted in spring, had a bevy of big time offers yet decided on SDSU? Why? He played for tOSU this year and looks like a 1st or 2nd rounder.

[dd10snoop28]

^^ All of what you guys said is true but 4 out of 24 is a crazy number.....no way another team has had this kind of turnover in a recuirting class ever.

[squintsdd]

^^ All of what you guys said is true but 4 out of 24 is a crazy number.....no way another team has had this kind of turnover in a recuirting class ever.

It makes sense though. Mario was a star chaser, and it was clear he didn't do enough research on his recruits. While stars have been linked to success, there are plenty that don't pan out too. Mario likes to go after the ones that don't seem to pan out at the more competitive programs.

[alxtw]

Didnt a bunch of kids, who would have been good players, also decommit, follow mario to florida, or changed their minds about signing with us when mario left.

That also contributed to the lack of quality players lanning had to quickly put together and sign, in the first few months that he arrived in Oregon, for his first class.

As lanning had more time to recruit better quality players and kids that fit his philosophy in the subsequent classes, the kids he had to quickly put together for the 2021 class got pushed out. I also recall the 2021 class were alot of mario recruits. Those kids likely were not the kind of kids that fit lannings program, vice versa.

[greenyellow]

Didnt a bunch of kids, who would have been good players, also decommit, follow mario to florida, or changed their minds about signing with us when mario left.

That also contributed to the lack of quality players lanning had to quickly put together and sign, in the first few months that he arrived in Oregon, for his first class.

As lanning had more time to recruit better quality players and kids that fit his philosophy in the subsequent classes, the kids he had to quickly put together for the 2021 class got pushed out. I also recall the 2021 class were alot of mario recruits. Those kids likely were not the kind of kids that fit lannings program, vice versa.

You're thinking about the 2022 class and Mario didn't take many guys with him when he left for Miami. Lanning was able to keep much of the 2022 class intact with him splitting time between Oregon and Georgia's NC run.

[OrTDuck]

To a degree I "get it"; but, I always wonder a bit about the "star chaser" label?

I think it is reasonable to argue Mario and staff were likely mostly "average" in the recruiting evaluation department; but, if you look at the offer list of essentially all the highly rated kids from that class, pretty much all of them had strong offer lists. If Oregon was "chasing stars" in that class, so were the likes of: Alabama, LSU, Florida, Florida State, Auburn, Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC, UCLA, Utah, UW, etc., etc.

Now, offer lists I understand are reported by recruits and vetted by the services, so they aren't likely always 100%, and sometimes may contain "conditional offers" that come late or aren't always fully committable; but, even those probably represent a degree of at least interest from a program. Looking at that class (other than maybe a bit with Thompson given his overall high ranking) they were kids a lot of programs apparently liked as well.

Kind of just going down the list:

Kingsley Suamataia: NFL

Tony Franklin: NFL

Jackson Powers-Johnson: NFL

Terrance Ferguson: probable NFL

Jeffery Bassa: long term starter (most likely at least UFA guy)


Bram Walden: 26 offers including: Auburn, FSU, LSU, Miami, Michigan, Ohio State, Texas, Texas A&M, USC, UW, Utah

Dant'e Thornton: 28 offers including: Auburn, Florida, FSU, Georgia, LSU, Miami, Michigan, ND, Ohio State, Penn State, Tennessee, Texas

Avante Dickerson: 24 offers including: LSU, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio State, Old Miss, Penn State, Tennessee, Texas, USC, Georgia

Moliki Matavao: 34 offers including: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, FSU, Georgia, Miami, Michigan, Nebraska, Texas, Tennessee, A&M, Utah

Byron Caldwell: 23 offers including: Auburn, Florida, FSU, LSU, Michigan, ND, Nebraska, Penn State, Tennessee, USC, UW, Utah

Daymon David: 23 offers including: Miami, Michigan, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Arkansas

Johan Miller: 13 offers including: Florida, Missouri, Nebraska, Penn State, Texas, USC, Utah, ASU

Keith Brown: 13 offers including: Michigan, Tennessee, USC, UCLA, Utah, UW

Seven McGee: 8 offers including: Nebraska, ASU, Old Miss, Tennessee, USC

Ty Thompson: 18 offers including: ASU, LSU, Miami, Wisconsin, Utah, UW

Jaylin Davies: 21 offers including: Auburn, ASU, FSU, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, USC, UCLA, UW, Utah

Keanu Williams: 22 offers including: ASU, Michigan, Nebraska, ND, Tennessee, UCLA, USC, Utah, UW, Kansas State

Jabril McNeill: 17 offers including: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Missouri, UW, Michigan State

Even some of the more "longer shot/take a chance developmental" guys on the list show offers: Johanthan Flowe (21 including Auburn and Oklahoma), Buckner (10 including Maryland and Colorado), Brevard (22 including Auburn and Old Miss), Tilmon (19 including Kansas State and Texas Tech), and Barkins (17 including Oklahoma and Utah).

Again, some of these lists might include a degree of "not fully committable" offers; but, I imagine as well most aren't pulled out of thin air. Not even really trying to defend Mario and staff here, other than to suggest most seem like sought after prospects, not so much random overrates by the "star system".