NBA/Blazers 2025-26 Thread

[pezsez1]

Good thoughts, Phalanx, but you're forgetting the biggest X factor of them all:

YANG HANSEN!!!!

[Phalanx]

I finally got around to listening to this interview with Sean Highkin from several days ago. Pretty interesting stuff.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AJKHUiIwzI&t=608s

Highkin is much nicer about Lillard than I am, but basically comes to all the same conclusions, saying that starting Ja and Dame is untenable and might only be done initially for 'political reasons', but Jrue has to be one of the starters as he is one of the all-time great guard defenders. He points out that Ja is the highest-paid guy on the team, so he is going to play if healthy. He thinks they might bring Lillard off the bench and that he could be 6th man of the year with his shooting (I laughed). He acknowledges that Lillard won't be a fan of this idea, and he looks to Coach Nori to figure it out.

He also says of the guards, Shaedon is likely the odd man out and most likely to be traded. I agree that he is most likely to be traded, but I don't think he will be traded, because I don't think the Blazers actually intend to do a trade - at least not until they see what they have with Ja. I think they will be content to wait for someone to approach them with an overpay for Jrue or Shaedon that brings back youth or picks. Unlike fans, management has to look past this season and realize that Lillard won't be around long, and Jrue is only going to be here two more years as well. After that, it will still be Scoot and Shaedon and maybe Ja if the experiment with him works out. That's probably what Scoot is being reminded of daily right now. This gets messy with contract negotiations though. Scoot needs to play. That's why I believe Lillard's minutes will not be high as the season wears on. He doesn't fit in to the team's future, and they aren't built to do more than lose in the early rounds of the playoffs right now. Elevating him to any kind of focal point beyond PR puppet would be detrimental to team development.

[pezsez1]

Highkin is much nicer about Lillard than I am, but basically comes to all the same conclusions, saying that starting Ja and Dame is untenable and might only be done initially for 'political reasons', but Jrue has to be one of the starters as he is one of the all-time great guard defenders. He points out that Ja is the highest-paid guy on the team, so he is going to play if healthy. He thinks they might bring Lillard off the bench and that he could be 6th man of the year with his shooting (I laughed). He acknowledges that Lillard won't be a fan of this idea, and he looks to Coach Nori to figure it out.

I'm not going to say he's wrong, because it's just hard to imagine Ja and Dame playing alongside each other. But I'd have an easier time seeing Ja as sixth man and Dame/Jru starting alongside each other, assuming Dame is healthy. Dame is a significantly better player than Ja both in this era and with how our roster is constructed. Ja would actually be the perfect sixth man, a guy who could come off the bench and provide instant energy and scoring even if he had to do it by himself.

Jru is still going to get a ton of minutes, but he'll be rotated more between the 1 and 2. I don't really put too much stock in Ja's pay amounting to playing time, and I'm honestly surprised Highkin had that take. Jerami Grant was a max contract player last season (trailing Jru's bad contract by only like $500k) and usually came off the bench. Ja has a ton of potential and we got him without giving up any meaningful parts of our core, but his game has some massive flaws. He can't defend, can't shoot, and his once-otherworldly athleticism is questionable after some serious injuries. He can throw assists, but Toumani Camara was the only Blazer who shot above 36% from 3 last season. With Dame on the floor we'll have two of those guys, and Jru was just under the 36% mark, but this squad isn't exactly built for kicking it out to shooters. I could see Ja, (Scoot or Sheadon), and RWIII being a hell of a second unit.

Here's my prediction that we can revisit in December... Ja and Dame will be our starters, with Ja at the point. Dame and Jru will be our closers, with Dame at the point. It would be a similar dynamic to the Damon Stoudamire days, when Stoudamire was often benched at the end of games in favor of Greg Anthony.

I still don't really understand why we traded for Ja.

[Phalanx]

Dame is a significantly better player than Ja both in this era and with how our roster is constructed.

You keep saying this but not backing it up with any credible argument. Ja is 9+ years younger, a better playmaker, gets a ton more assists, and even plays better defense - likely way better at this point. In their head-to-head meetings, Ja averaged nearly a triple double (23.5, 6.9, 10), shot a significantly higher fg%, and out-rebounded and out-assisted Lillard while scoring the same number of points in less minutes. Lillard's terrible defense has always been a massive liability and you missed it. It's like you are only ever looking at one end of the court and completely ignore the entire other half of the game where Lillard sucks.

I'm not sure what is confusing about why they traded for Ja. All they had to give up were guys they already wanted to jettison, so they took a flyer on a guy who was an electric player only a few years ago. If it works out, Ja could be the starting point guard as early as next year. It takes pressure off of the team regarding Scoot's development and contract negotiations, and the only risk is that it complicates the early rotation for a couple of old guys who aren't in the long-term plans anyway. Pretty easy decision, really. Fans are the only ones who make it complicated because they seem to think that Lillard is being re-installed as the franchise player, which is nothing to do with reality.

[pezsez1]

They traded for Ja because it was literally a fire sale. They literally paid us $1 million on top of it just to get him off their hands.

Lillard is a better shooter from every range. An equal playmaker. A better clutch player. And proven over time to just be a far better guy to have on your team. I'm not going to bother looking up defensive stats because that's not what either guy is paid for.

Prime Ja was special at the one thing he did well, but we don't even know if Prime Ja still exists. Take away his freak athleticism and he might not even be a starter in this league.

The good news is that soon the past won't matter. We'll see them on the same team, with the same roster, and we'll see which one of us is right.