NBA/Blazers 2026-27 Thread

[Phalanx]

A new year is dawning, with new ownership, and a new head coach in Micah Nori. What will this team look like? Will they struggle to make the playoffs like last year? Will Ja Morant justify trading away two rotational forwards, Grant and Murray? Did Cronin do enough to replace those guys with Jeremy Sochan and Micah Potter? What about 36-year old Lillard? Are the rumors true about him endlessly training in his secret Bat-cave and learning to play defense, or is it just hype? Will he be worth the $27 million they are paying him for last year and this year?

Lots of questions to start the new season, without even getting into the political/renovation/relocation threat stuff, which hopefully will get worked out now that the money is on some level secured. I prefer to focus on the team, but always willing to hear new developments.

My initial nugget of info to start things off is a recent quote from Coach Nori regarding Scoot Henderson. One of the biggest questions this season is when/if Scoot gets a multi-year extension or if he goes to restricted free agency next summer. Coach Nori had this to say:

“With Scoot, it’s like an old adage that Dwane Casey used to say: it’s easier to say ‘Whoa!’ than ‘Giddy up!’ and he’s a guy that plays full force and just and really with a lot of pace at the offensive end. But the steps and strides that he made at the defensive end, getting into the basketball, being able to get into and over screens and impact at that end has been great. I look for Scoot to take a huge jump this season for sure.”
https://www.nba.com/news/first-time-nba ... challenges

I take anything said this time of year with a huge grain of sea salt, but having the coach talk about him is better than not talking about him.

[pezsez1]

Probably the most interesting thing I've heard so far is that Nori might be planning to give guys shorter bursts of time on the floor and playing with a larger rotation. That won't solve the debate on who starts, but it could make the answer less relevant. Also saw Nori comparing Scoot to Russell Westbrook and kind of indicating he'd like to strip away some PG duties from him and just have him be a guy who brings energy on both ends of the floor.

I'm going to Wednesday's preseason game, hoping to get some early looks at Ja and Dame.

[Phalanx]

Yeah, I saw that interview with Nori and Scoot too. I admit to being a little doubtful how that 'burst' strategy is going to work with two 36-year-olds and one already turnover-prone kid, but I guess we'll see. Listening to pre-season talk involves a lot of sifting through PR to find the truth. One thing that is very noticeable is that they trade for Ja, and it seems like he will be a starter now from day one. So that's half the job done there; it only remains to work Scoot into the starting lineup as the season wears on, and the Blazers will have their backcourt of the future up and running.

Here's a funny quote from Jason Quick, who is apparently back to covering the Blazers:

Nori said that starting Morant and Lillard doesn’t make sense. Both are undersized, and both have never excelled on the defensive end. The more analytically sound option would be to start Holiday — a bigger guard who is an exceptional defender — and have either Morant or Lillard come off the bench. But in a league with huge egos, asking an All-Star to come off the bench is a delicate and difficult task for any coach, let alone Nori, a first-year coach operating on a one-year contract.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/764779 ... -ios-share

Good to see that Nori has some sense when he is talking behind the scenes.

[pezsez1]

Yeah, it's going to be a delicate issue until it's set.

Dame/Jru/Deni is the starting unit I'm most eager to see. Dame/Deni is a much more logical pairing than Ja/Deni, and obviously starting Jru at the 2 makes a lot more sense than playing Dame and Ja together. Glad to see the coach is being real about that. I've also seen interviews with Ja stating his willingness to come off the bench, so maybe there have been discussions there that haven't been brought to light publicly. I could see Ja being a one-man wrecking crew as our sixth man, especially if he's paired with Scoot in the second unit and not sharing the floor with Deni. The Ja/Scoot pairing makes a ton of sense if the goal is a long-term backcourt of Ja/Scoot.

Injury/recovery is an X factor for both guys. I've seen lots of insta vids of both looking fantastic, but such a big difference between video clips and real NBA game action.

I said this before though, the way around this (that saves Nori from having to make any tough decisions) is to start Dame & Ja but have Ja on the bench at the end of most games. Have Dame & Ja be starters, and Dame & Jru be closers. Or Ja & Jru, if one has the hot hand. That would be reminiscent of the Damon Stoudamire era, when Damon started but Greg Anthony often finished.

Another quote from Nori in that same article that makes me think something like I described above could be a possibility:

“To me, and it’s easy to say this standing here (as a head coach), but I’d rather finish the game than start the game,” Nori said.

This could be a sneaky good team if whoever comes off the bench is willing to swallow his pride.

[Boom]

They're going to suck. If I was a betting man I'd take the under.

[Phalanx]

Last season, the Blazers were second-to-last in fg% in the NBA, and third-to-last in 3p%, despite being third-highest in attempts from beyond the arc. Combine this with the turnover problem, and it's hard to see them being very competitive. I expect them to once again struggle to make the play-in.

[pezsez1]

Last season, the Blazers were second-to-last in fg% in the NBA, and third-to-last in 3p%, despite being third-highest in attempts from beyond the arc. Combine this with the turnover problem, and it's hard to see them being very competitive. I expect them to once again struggle to make the play-in.

Which is why I'm excited to see Dame, Jrue and Deni on the floor together. Dame is elite from distance, and Jru is very good from deep. Together they'll be the best pair of shooters that Deni has ever been able to kick out to. If/when teams collapse on Deni, one of them will be open on the perimeter -- probably mostly Jrue. And he's good enough that if he's getting open looks all game then we have a great chance of winning. He's not Aminu out there, teams actually have to respect him.

We are still somewhat one-dimensional though, because we can't spend the whole game with Deni diving into the middle and kicking out. We need a third 3-pt shooter in the prime rotation for the offense to really work. I think Deni could be that guy though, especially if Dame and Jrue are both hitting their shots. Deni shot much better from deep over the two seasons before last. And last season doubling him was the key to beating us, so not surprising that his percentages suffered. If Dame & Jrue attract attention then Deni will get far more open looks and I'm betting his 3% will improve dramatically. In other words, I think we have the shooters we need to at least have a tough rotation, it's just that Deni didn't have enough help to get open looks last year.

The other big X factor is Ja. Injuries clearly affected his shooting in recent years, and if he's healthy then I'd expect that to improve as well. Like Deni, we've got to find ways to get Ja on the floor with at least a couple of other solid 3-pt shooters. If Nori can manage that, then he'll find open looks (from distance or at the rim).

I don't have high hopes for us making a big playoff run, but I do think we'll glide-path our way to a low first-round seed. I don't anticipate Dundon/Cronin making any significant moves to fix our roster imbalances during the season so it's tough to see us contending for anything except maybe the second round.

[Boom]

Best case scenario is that Ja has a resurgence and the team is able to flip him or Deni. I do not see those two working out together long term.

[Phalanx]

[
Dame is elite from distance, and Jru is very good from deep. Together they'll be the best pair of shooters that Deni has ever been able to kick out to. If/when teams collapse on Deni, one of them will be open on the perimeter -- probably mostly Jrue. And he's good enough that if he's getting open looks all game then we have a great chance of winning. He's not Aminu out there, teams actually have to respect him.

Career playoff 3pt%

Al-Faroug Aminu 70/179 .391

Damian Lillard 222/603 .368

I mentioned three point percentage and how low the Blazers have been. Lillard doesn't help much with this. He ranks 241st career all-time, well behind former Blazers like Channing Frye, Tracy Murray, and basically every other guard that ever played for the Blazers or has ever stepped into the state of Oregon. Not really every guard, but a lot of them.

Career Regular Season 3pt%

Damian Lillard .371

Jrue Holiday .370

Dražen Petrović .437
Seth Curry .433
Luke Babbitt .400
Norman Powell .396
CJ McCollum .395
Payton Pritchard .394
Vít Krejčí .393
Tracy Murray .388
Channing Frye .388
Chauncey Billups .387
Gary Trent Jr. .387
Allen Crabbe .387
Arron Afflalo .386
Terry Porter .386
Patty Mills .385
Detlef Schrempf .384
Steve Blake .383
Martell Webster .382
Anfernee Simons .381
Walt Williams .379
Danny Ainge .378
Mike Dunleavy .377
Wesley Matthews .376
Nicholas Batum .371

What the Blazers need are players who can get high percentage baskets consistently. Lillard is not that guy, which is why he led the team to so many first-round losses.

Thankfully, not only Vit but also Micah Potter has a higher percentage from deep than Lillard. Hopefully, Lillard can pass to those guys instead of taking the shot himself.

[Boom]

[
Dame is elite from distance, and Jru is very good from deep. Together they'll be the best pair of shooters that Deni has ever been able to kick out to. If/when teams collapse on Deni, one of them will be open on the perimeter -- probably mostly Jrue. And he's good enough that if he's getting open looks all game then we have a great chance of winning. He's not Aminu out there, teams actually have to respect him.

Career playoff 3pt%

Al-Faroug Aminu 70/179 .391

Damian Lillard 222/603 .368

I mentioned three point percentage and how low the Blazers have been. Lillard doesn't help much with this. He ranks 241st career all-time, well behind former Blazers like Channing Frye, Tracy Murray, and basically every other guard that ever played for the Blazers or has ever stepped into the state of Oregon. Not really every guard, but a lot of them.

Career Regular Season 3pt%

Damian Lillard .371

Jrue Holiday .370

Dražen Petrović .437
Seth Curry .433
Luke Babbitt .400
Norman Powell .396
CJ McCollum .395
Payton Pritchard .394
Vít Krejčí .393
Tracy Murray .388
Channing Frye .388
Chauncey Billups .387
Gary Trent Jr. .387
Allen Crabbe .387
Arron Afflalo .386
Terry Porter .386
Patty Mills .385
Detlef Schrempf .384
Steve Blake .383
Martell Webster .382
Anfernee Simons .381
Walt Williams .379
Danny Ainge .378
Mike Dunleavy .377
Wesley Matthews .376
Nicholas Batum .371

What the Blazers need are players who can get high percentage baskets consistently. Lillard is not that guy, which is why he led the team to so many first-round losses.

Thankfully, not only Vit but also Micah Potter has a higher percentage from deep than Lillard. Hopefully, Lillard can pass to those guys instead of taking the shot himself.

You're comparing players who could only manage 2ish 3pt attempts a game to a guy who has a career average of 8.4 attempts per game... Not that it really matters anymore. Dame is 36 and the Blazers already wasted his prime with below average rosters. Dame and Holiday are role players at 20mpg at best.

Vit is a fringe NBA player. Hopefully he never plays. He's terrible.

[Phalanx]

So the thing that is elite about Lillard is not his accuracy, but that he hucked up a lot of shots?

The fact that you think Vit and all the guys who are more accurate than Lillard from three are not good is exactly my point. The Blazers need higher percentage shooting, and Lillard doesn't help with this. That's why the league got excited when Giannis was suddenly available. The guy made over 62% of his shots last season. That's the kind of reliable scoring the Blazers lack, and why they don't contend. Relying on a guard to sit back a shoot threes at a 241st all-time clip is not a winning strategy. The Blazers need guys that know how to get a volume of high percentage shots. A point guard's job is to break down a defense and help those high percentage shots happen, not sit back from the logo and doink it off the rim 63% of the time.

[pezsez1]

That's why the league got excited when Giannis was suddenly available. The guy made over 62% of his shots last season. That's the kind of reliable scoring the Blazers lack, and why they don't contend. Relying on a guard to sit back a shoot threes at a 241st all-time clip is not a winning strategy.

Aminu wasn't good enough to be a rotation player on a playoff team, but he was often our third option. He was out of the league by the age of 30. That's why teams doubled Dame & CJ and dared Aminu to beat them -- because he couldn't. Enough said. I mean there's literally nothing more to argue there. Aminu wasn't even good enough to stay on any other team's bench. Kind of like Mo Harkless.

We should all agree on your highlighted comment though. Contending NBA teams need tall, talented forwards like contending football teams need big, talented linemen. Until Deni stepped up his game, the Blazers hadn't had that since LMA left in free agency. We endured the Neil Olshey era of stubborn small ball with him clinging to meaningless rotation players like Anfernee Simons when what we really needed was Aaron Gordon. Real contending NBA teams don't try to amass three-guard lineups, they go out and get size, length and shooting.

I don't know whether the Blazers have a Joe Cronin problem or a Tom Dundon problem (or both). When Dundon bought the team, he said the tanking was over and he was all about winning -- but then he goes out and makes the weird move to get Ja Morant. I can't WAIT to see our team play, they should be fun to watch, but in extremely few realities is this team a contender with this roster construction.

Giannis is a top 5 player and guys like him don't usually become available. That's why the league was buzzing. But the Blazers should be prioritizing a path toward acquiring another high-scoring wing or big who can beat double teams without needing to jump out of the gym. At some point they need to push their chips in... or they just need to ride with this three-guard madness and commit to a proper rebuild as our lottery picks come in over the next few years.

[Boom]

So the thing that is elite about Lillard is not his accuracy, but that he hucked up a lot of shots?

Creating your own shot and creating shots for others is a high demand skill.

The fact that you think Vit and all the guys who are more accurate than Lillard from three are not good is exactly my point. The Blazers need higher percentage shooting, and Lillard doesn't help with this. That's why the league got excited when Giannis was suddenly available. The guy made over 62% of his shots last season. That's the kind of reliable scoring the Blazers lack, and why they don't contend. Relying on a guard to sit back a shoot threes at a 241st all-time clip is not a winning strategy. The Blazers need guys that know how to get a volume of high percentage shots. A point guard's job is to break down a defense and help those high percentage shots happen, not sit back from the logo and doink it off the rim 63% of the time.

Vit is not a very good NBA player. The guy was traded for a reason and he wasn't able to crack the rotation on a poor roster.

[Phalanx]

Yeah, I didn't post Aminu's numbers to say he was good, I posted them to show how good Lillard is not. If he can't even ascend to Al-Farouq Aminu's heights in terms of three point accuracy, I don't think he is going to help much in terms of winning. Like I said, unless a team has Steph and Klay (both with significantly better 3pt fg% than Lillard), firing bombs from the perimeter is a losing strategy. A point guard's chief benefit to a team is the ability to repeatedly break down defenses and create high percentage shots. The Blazers actually have a guy on the team who can do this, but it isn't Lillard. It's Ja Morant. That's why I think the best strategy is to make Ja the point guard and if you must play Lillard, use him on the wing to stretch the floor. He's a terrible defender, but if he can be less 'the guy' and more of a role player, he can be more selective in his shooting and contribute to better team efficiency.

The Knicks as a team shot .391 from three during last year's playoffs (19 games). They did this by not forcing garbage shots from the logo, etc. They played team ball with an ensemble cast, scoring from inside and outside. Without a Giannis on the team, this is the model the Blazers need to follow. If Lillard starts hogging again like he did for a decade, we can expect the same first-round exit that was standard fare during his tenure here.