CFP SF: #5 Oregon v #1 Indiana (Jan. 9, Fri 4:30 PM ESPN)

[StevensTechU]

Here we go.

[StevensTechU]

Before somebody drops the "It's really hard to beat a team twice in a season," I want to say NO IT ISN'T - THAT'S AN NFL TROPE.

In rematches this year, Texas Tech thumped BYU after thumping them the first time. Mississippi thumped Tulane after thumping them the first time. Georgia Southern beat App State after beating them the first time. Georgia and Mississippi played a back-and-forth game after playing a back-and-forth game the first time. Montana State beat Montana even worse the second time than the first time.

Don't believe the examples above? Ask Lanning how the two games against Uw in 2023 went.

More often than not, the second game looks a good deal like the first game. So let's hope Oregon stretches out their strengths and minimizes their weaknesses and we see an 11 point swing for the team that doesn't have Curt Cignetti as its coach and seemingly mascot.

[Alan]

Okay, let me be the first to say…….. this game has me worried. In all seriousness, we are a better team than Bama and we competed well with them the first game….but….

[SuperDuck]

Both Oregon and Indiana are better teams than when they met before. That said, as solid as Indiana appears to be, with the exception of Ohio State, Oregon has played similar games as IU against Iowa, Penn State, etc, and the Texas Tech defense is one of the best in the country, as was Ohio State, who IU played.

The Ducks defense has matured since the first meeting, especially in the secondary.

The key to the game, as before, is to give Dante time to throw, as well as establish a running game and cut out the dumb mistakes. Pancho didn't have a great day yesterday, but in all fairness, most centers haven't had good days facing TT nose tackle, Lee Hunter. That guy is a beast.

Isaiah World got exposed again by a speedy defensive end. He'll likely move inside to guard in the NFL, as he's just not as fast as most of the guys he'd face there.

Also, Dante missed some wide open receivers yesterday. Of course, some of those were when he was running for his life, but not all. He just missed a few. I'm not trying to judge, as I couldn't do any better for sure, I'm just saying that there's room for improvement.

Having this game a week before playing Indiana should help us a LOT compared to the first game.

I think the game will be a chess match, as well as strength vs strength. Both teams are extremely talented and I think it can go either way.

May the best team win. I hope it's Oregon.

[SuperDuck]

Another concern I have is Dante's health. I understand that plays break down and sometimes he's forced to run. That said, him getting hurt would be the worst thing that could happen to him and the team, so I'd like to see him run less unless it's a designed run. He also MUST learn to slide to avoid direct hits!!!

[SuperDuck]

Before somebody drops the "It's really hard to beat a team twice in a season," I want to say NO IT ISN'T - THAT'S AN NFL TROPE.

In rematches this year, Texas Tech thumped BYU after thumping them the first time. Mississippi thumped Tulane after thumping them the first time. Georgia Southern beat App State after beating them the first time. Georgia and Mississippi played a back-and-forth game after playing a back-and-forth game the first time. Montana State beat Montana even worse the second time than the first time.

Mississippi came back to win this time, as did Georgia against Alabama in the second game and Alabama vs Oklahoma in the second game.

You just never know.

[StevensTechU]

Mississippi came back to win this time, as did Georgia against Alabama in the second game and Alabama vs Oklahoma in the second game.

You just never know.

I forgot about UGA/Alabama. Georgia started the first game sloppily, ended on a 21-10 run, and then won the rematch 28-7. It's definitely the game with the biggest variation in performance, though.

[UofDuck]

This is hard to quantify, but it sure looks like Indiana now believes they’re invincible. Everything about them screams we’ve arrived. (Cig’s cocky smirk is nauseating) I hope them feeling this way works in our favor. They have now lost the “nobody thinks we belong so let’s show them we do” vibe. I wonder how that plays into their psyche, prep, and performance.

Our D felt disrespected against Tech and see what happened. It’s going to play out that way again this next 9 days. Nobody is going to give us a chance. Dan is going to feast on that. This could get fun.

[UOducksTK1]

My money is on Indiana, but if there’s a time to beat the Hoosiers, it’s now. Like UofDuck pointed out, they’re riding high right now. Here’s to them playing like they did against Penn Statd and Old Dominion!!

[StevensTechU]

I've got lots of thoughts on this one, so I'm going to post just a few more times. Bear with me.

Indiana is, indeed, talented. Of the teams in the playoffs, their wide receiver room (Sarratt, Cooper, and Becker) should be in the conversation for being the second best unit after Ohio State. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sarratt and Cooper have better NFL careers than a lot of players with more familiar names. At running back, both Hemby and Black are premier college running backs. I don't think they have the same upside as some of the younger guys on other teams, but they're good, and they run behind the 1st or 2nd best offensive line in the playoffs (debatable between Miami and Indiana), which has three future NFL players on it in Coogan, Carter Smith and . Then the most important position on the field - QB - they have the Heisman winner. Indiana has the #4 ranked offense per FEI because they have a very good offensive line that paves the way for good running backs and a stellar QB to throw to great WRs. Talent, talent, talent, talent. The only weakness on offense is tight end.

Defensively, they have the 2nd or 3rd best linebacker corps in the playoffs (TTU #1, Ohio state or IU #2) and top 4 defensive line (take your pick from TTU, IU, Miami and Ohio State). It doesn't matter that Tyrique Tucker started his career at JMU because he's going to end it in the NFL. Same story for Aiden Fisher. On the back end, same story for Deangelo Ponds. Rolijah Hardy and Isaiah Jones at linebacker are both on the level of Bryce Boettcher, from both a talent and performance perspective. Thankfully for us, Indiana is without Kellan Wyatt (played in the first game against UofO) and Stephen Daley (emerged after our game; Big Ten's TFL leader). On the back end, at least half the playoff teams (Alabama, Mississippi, UGA, TTU, JMU, Tulane, maybe Texas A&M) would trade their secondary for Indiana's. In addition to Ponds, Louis Moore will get a real shot of the NFL and maybe Amare Ferrell. Funny to me, Moore played one season at Mississippi like Jadon Canady, both were just a body there, then both transferred out and have played at an elite level.

I'm going to do one more post on how experienced the Indiana team is. But I wanted to first put to bed that Indiana isn't talented, because many of their offensive and defensive units at top 1, 2, or 3 among the playoff teams due to the abilities of future NFL players on the roster.

[dthomas=ddixon]

Against every good defense this year, our offense has struggled to execute and score TDs. In all those games, our defense was largely lights out. Despite some moments of collapse (PSU especially), they’ve kept games in hand, and given the offense every chance to get going and close the game out. Which they did in all but one game.

I don’t see any reason this game will be different. I expect our offense will struggle, our defense will keep the game close, and we’ll have to hope Dante and the offense make plays at the end while the defense avoids any late game collapses. Against everyone other than Indiana, at least one side of the ball did enough to win. We’ll need both to win this one.

[duckfan96]

Oregon wins 30-20

[dthomas=ddixon]

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[QuackininBama]

There is nothing on paper, or using my "feelings" that tells me we will win this game. As a fan, all I have is the eye test. I thought they were good when they beat us, but when they beat Ohio State all I could do is take my hat off and give them credit where credit it due. That is no easy task. Then, they steamrolled Alabama, who is maybe not a playoff team, but they are a good football team, and Indiana treated that like playing a FCS team.

I can say its been a great year and we have a great team, just not quite at their level this year. Pretty sure during the offseason most of us agreed that this year was not going to be a championship run, so if we lose I will not be heartbroken.

With that being said, that is why the games are played on the field, so while I don't feel great about beating Indiana, they still have to prove it. And.....I would love to wipe that know it all smirk off Cignetti's face. Dude is not humble at all and thinks he is the smarted guy in any room he walks in. I would love Dan and the Ducks to wipe that grin right off his face.

[StevensTechU]

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This is what I am planning to do my next post on. I want to compare years of college football played for Indiana versus a Oregon.