Comparing scout and rivals using the 2010 NFL draft

[karlhungis]

It seems like every year we tend to fall into the same debate if which recruiting service is more accurate. It seems that most people believe that Rivals is a more accurate service when it comes to ranking prospects. I figured that I would look at the first round of last years NFL draft and see how each service ranked each of the prospects. What I have found seems to suggest that Rivals seems to be the more accurate of the two services (based upon this small sample).

Obviously, this is an inexact science and I am sure that people can look at this same info and come to their own conclusion but this is what I found. Of the 32 people taken in the first round, 20 of the 32 were higher rated on Rivals. Scout only had 3 of the draftee's rated higher than Rivals did and the other 9 were pretty much a draw (2* prospects that weren't evaluated by either service or consensus #1's).

Anyways, I found it interesting. Hopefully someone else enjoys it.


2010 NFL DRAFT:
1 (1)Bradford, Sam QB 6'4"236 Oklahoma
Rivals 3*** #14QB
Scout 4**** #17QB

2 (2)Suh, Ndamukong DT 6'4"307 Nebraska
Rivals 4**** #6DT
Scout 4**** #9DT

3 (3)McCoy, Gerald DT 6'4"295 Oklahoma
Rivals 5*****
Scout 5***** #1 DT

4 (4)Williams, Trent OT 6'5"315 Oklahoma
Rivals 3*** #28 OT
Scout 3*** #56 OL

5 (5)Berry, Eric SS 6'0"211Tennessee
Rivals 5***** #1CB
Scout 5***** #1CB

6 (6)Okung, Russell OT 6'5"307 Oklahoma State
Rivals 3*** #33 OL
Scout 4**** #45 OL

7 (7)Haden, Joe CB 5'11"193 Florida
Rivals 4**** #3 ATH
Scout 4**** #22 WR

8 (8)McClain, Rolando LB 6'3"254 Alabama
Rivals 4**** #2 ILB
Scout 5***** #1 MLB

9 (9)Spiller, C.J. RB 5'11"196 Clemson
Rivals 5***** #1 RB
Scout 5***** #4 RB

10 (10)Alualu, Tyson DE 6'3"295 California
Rivals 3*** #24DT
Scout 3*** #55DT

11 (11)Davis, Anthony OT 6'5"323 Rutgers
Rivals 4**** #5 OL
Scout 4**** #2 OT

12 (12)Mathews, Ryan RB 6'0"218 Fresno State
Rivals 3*** #69RB
Scout 2**

13 (13)Graham, Brandon DE 6'1"268 Michigan
Rivals 5***** #2DE
Scout 5***** #3LB

14 (14)Thomas, Earl S 5'10"208 Texas
Rivals 4**** #12ATH
Scout 4**** #11CB

15 (15)Pierre-Paul, Jason DE 6'5"270 South Florida
Rivals 4**** (NA)
Scout NR

16 (16)Morgan, Derrick DE 6'3"266 Georgia Tech
Rivals 4**** #6DE
Scout 4**** #15DE

17 (17))Iupati, Mike OG 6'5"331 Idaho
Rivals 2**
Scout 2**

18 (18)Pouncey, Maurkice C 6'4"304 Florida
Rivals 4**** #15OL
Scout 4**** #15OG

19 (19)Weatherspoon, Sean LB 6'1"239 Missouri
Rivals 2**
Scout 2**

20 (20)Jackson, Kareem CB 5'10"196 Alabama
Rivals 4****
Scout 3***

21 (21)Gresham, Jermaine TE 6'5"261 Oklahoma
Rivals 4**** #1TE
Scout 4**** #4TE

22 (22)Thomas, Demaryius WR 6'3"224 Georgia Tech
Rivals 3*** #58WR
Scout 3*** #34WR

23 (23)Bulaga, Bryan OT 6'5"314 Iowa
Rivals 4**** #6OL
Scout 4**** #16OL

24 (24)Bryant, Dez WR 6'2"225 Oklahoma State
Rivals 4**** #9WR
Scout 4**** #13WR

25 (25)Tebow, Tim QB 6'3"236 Florida
Rivals 5***** #1QB
Scout 5***** #3QB

26 (26)Williams, Dan DT 6'2"327 Tennessee
Rivals 3*** #35DT
Scout 3*** #57OL

27 (27)McCourty, Devin CB 5'11"193 Rutgers
Rivals 2**
Scout 2**

28 (28)Odrick, Jared DT 6'5"304 Penn State
Rivals 4**** #3DT
Scout 4**** #8DT

29 (29)Wilson, Kyle CB 5'10"194 Boise State
Rivals 2**
Scout 2**

30 (30)Best, Jahvid RB 5'10"199 California
Rivals 4**** #9RB
Scout 4**** #18RB

31 (31)Hughes, Jerry DE 6'2"255 TCU
Rivals 2**
Scout 2**

32 (32)Robinson, Patrick CB 5'11"190 Florida State
Rivals 4**** #6DB
Scout 4**** #16CB

[Bigducker]

I suspected rivals was better at the evaluations. Would love to go back 3-4 more years to check their records, but I know that takes a lot of time and work. Good job !

[hines]

people comparing recruiting lists crack me up. never has time ever been so wasted.

[Hoagduck]

people comparing recruiting lists crack me up. never has time ever been so wasted.

Said the guy who just read the "waste of time".

[Destroyer77]

people comparing recruiting lists crack me up. never has time ever been so wasted.

Oh it's been wasted worse than that I assure you.....

[Tray Dub]

Nice work karl. I've always wanted to see a comparison of the two sites. Obviously, a more comprehensive look would be better since this has a pretty small sample size, but this is still a good job. Thanks.

[Phenom]

people comparing recruiting lists crack me up. never has time ever been so wasted.

Oh it's been wasted worse than that I assure you.....

Haha...

[nogerO]

people comparing recruiting lists crack me up. never has time ever been so wasted.

to eDuck. You fit right in there Mr. Pompous.

[uodux1212]

Here's a great article comparing recruiting classes and winning percentages... interesting stuff...

http://oregon.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1179868

Over the last 9 years only 5 teams have a double digit delta between the class rank and winning %.

VT +15 (ave class rank 28, average rank win % 6)
Mizz +13 (27/14)
tOSU +11 (12/1)
UO +10 (20/10)
Pitt +10 (29/19)

UCLA -9 (17/25)
AZ -1 (28/29)
USC -1 (4/5) (Im sure they're not too broken up about this)
ASU +1 (24/23)